Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,199 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.1% might not be great, it’s positive over a big sample size. Which isn’t nothing.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Bowling Green @ Michigan
The word around Michigan circles with this seems to be that Bowling Green is a Cinderella in the making, and that tonight should be tough.
Don’t buy it.
Bowling Green got their 12-6 finish in the MAC last year by going 7-0 in games decided by three points or fewer. They’re a fine team, but they aren’t really a favorite in the MAC itself. Michigan should be able to handle them with ease.
Pick: Michigan -13.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Idaho State @ Santa Clara
The WCC’s second tier is thick this year, but not in an exciting way. Saint Mary’s and BYU are down, San Francisco isn’t up, and no one else is filling the role.
The result is that Santa Clara, if they get hot, is one of a bunch of teams out there that could pull off an impressive overall W-L record. Tonight’s tune-up’s an intriguing first step.
Pick: Santa Clara -11.5 (-110). Low confidence.
UTSA @ Oklahoma
Oklahoma’s a well-rounded team that should stay a step ahead of the bubble if all goes as planned (see the next post on this site for a note on what could go wrong that’s somewhat outside their control).
With that said, UTSA is expected to live up to the Roadrunners moniker, and Cedrick Alley—the Houston transfer—is at least intriguing in a significant role. UTSA might play too fast to keep it close, but the potential is there to put a scare into the Sooners.
Pick: UTSA +18 (-110). Low confidence.
