Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 666 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 12% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
IUPUI @ Loyola
Loyola bounced back last weekend from its unsightly loss to Coppin State, beating St. Joe’s by 17 at home. There are still questions surrounding the Ramblers, though. They aren’t healthy. They’re one-dimensional offensively.
IUPUI, of course, is a heavy underdog, but the Jaguars are coming off a 17-point victory of their own, theirs in Tampa against USF. Big man Isaiah Williams has been effective so far at drawing fouls. If he can get Cameron Krutwig in trouble, it could turn disastrous for the home team.
Pick: IUPUI +14 (-110). Low confidence.
Troy @ Texas A&M
Buzz Williams’ 2018-19 Virginia Tech team—the one that nearly knocked off Duke in the Sweet Sixteen after beating them in the regular season—was an anomaly for him. It played the slowest tempo, relative to the nation, of any team he’s led. This was specifically due to an offensive shift to slow things down more. That shift hasn’t continued at Texas A&M.
Williams’ Aggies are still on the slow side of things, especially on the defensive side of the ball (this, unlike offensive tempo, has remained constant for Williams for nearly a decade now). They just aren’t as slow as they used to be. And while they still force a lot of three-point attempts, Troy likes to take three’s, and is better, relative to the country, beyond the arc than they are within its confines.
It won’t be a barnburner, but it should be higher-scoring than the line projects.
Pick: Over 134 (-110). Low confidence.
Saint Mary’s vs. Fresno State
Noah Blackwell is back in Fresno State’s lineup, something that should significantly help Fresno State’s offense. He missed all seven three’s he attempted in his return against San Diego, and he went only one-for-five against Cal State-San Bernadino, but coming off a season in which he shot 41.9% from beyond the arc, one has to imagine he’ll turn it around soon.
Blackwell turning it around is essential for Fresno State to score. They shoot more three’s than nearly anyone in the country, with 52.6% of their field goal attempts so far coming from deep. This is something Saint Mary’s excels at stopping—they’re among the national leaders in both preventing three-point attempts and preventing made three’s. Still, Fresno State appears likely to fire away.
Saint Mary’s has only kept one opponent under 60 this year—Cal Poly on Sunday. It’s very possible they’ll give Fresno State the same treatment. It just isn’t likely.
Pick: Over 125 (-110). Low confidence.
