Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,818 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 2% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
George Mason @ Maryland
George Mason’s had some great results in the early-going, but this line is probably giving them more credit than is due, and it might be a rude awakening as they open a tough stretch over these next eight nights. After tonight, they play at James Madison before a Washington/Nevada/South Dakota State run in Sioux Falls. It might be a great week. It might be a rough one.
Pick: Maryland -9.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Toledo @ Oakland
AJ Edu’s going to be out for a while for Toledo, but reactions in the market might be overblown. So far, they’ve played almost exactly as expected. They should maybe be the favorite tonight.
Pick: Toledo +2.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Harvard @ Albany
There’s a lot of thought that Iona’s going to take a big leap this season, and with Harvard playing them close the other night, that seems to be carrying some Crimson water. It’s a stretch.
Pick: Albany +6.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Utah Valley @ Long Beach State
I haven’t seen any update on Joe Hampton’s status for Long Beach State, but with his absence against UCLA reportedly being due to an Achilles injury, I’m assuming LBSU will be cautious with the guy. Utah Valley’s the better team here.
Pick: Utah Valley +2.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
