Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,934 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,249 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
We have more MACtion (our last weeknight MACtion of the season), and we have more college basketball. We’re pushing our college football futures for this week back another day, since we’ll reportedly receive an answer tonight about how bowl eligible James Madison and Jacksonville State are, and that impacts the Sun Belt and Conference USA championships, both of which are markets in which we’re invested. We’re pushing our NFL futures back as well, because of time constraints. Here’s the context on the markets we’re in on.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 6–5. We’re up 0.50 units and we’re up 5%. We’ve won five of our last six.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 64–63–3. We’re down 4.33 units and we’re down 3%.
Pacific @ Nevada
We like what Pacific’s shown so far, hanging tough with Sam Houston and beating Cal on the road. We don’t think a whole lot of them, but they’re good enough to potentially put a little scare into Nevada tonight, who’s coming off a comfortable win in Seattle over Washington that might have them complacent, or at the very least overhyped by the market.
Pick: Pacific +13 (–103). Low confidence.
Buffalo @ Miami (OH)
We think highly of Miami within the confines of the MAC, and we don’t think all that much of Buffalo. So much was made of Brett Gabbert’s injury, but the guy didn’t play defense.
Pick: Miami (OH) –7.5 (–110). Low confidence.
