Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 639 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 12% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks tonight, all in college basketball.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Quinnipiac @ Brown
Quinnipiac is one of the few Division I teams who have yet to play a regular season game—something that will change in a few hours. Uncertainty surrounding them, then, is higher than it is for Brown, but with Brown only playing twice thus far, they aren’t exactly a known commodity themselves. At this point in the season, nobody is. Still, Brown’s been markedly steady in KenPom’s overall adjusted efficiency metric, sliding only from 177th to 183rd overall in the past eight days. We might not know exactly what we’re getting, but we have a decent idea, and from what we know, getting their third win tonight should be the expectation.
Pick: Brown -5 (-110). Low confidence.
Saint Joseph’s @ UConn
Dan Hurley’s teams have never played particularly up-tempo basketball. In fact, in a few of his years at Rhode Island, his offenses were among the most methodical in the country. It was a surprise, then, on Friday to see his UConn team race up and down the court for 81 possessions against Sacred Heart (the Division I average is somewhere around 72).
One game does not make a season, though, and it’s possible the change of pace had more to do with Sacred Heart than UConn. Last year, Sacred Heart’s average defensive possession lasted just 16.4 seconds, the eleventh-fastest in D-I men’s basketball.
Saint Joseph’s seems to like to play fast themselves, and this game certainly doesn’t figure to be low-scoring. The Saint Joe’s offense, however, may struggle to convert chances, and Hurley shouldn’t be expected to suddenly become a run and gun coach.
Pick: Under 158 (-110). Low confidence.
Florida International @ North Carolina State
Last season, FIU played the fastest basketball in Division I, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t be up there again this year. With no players taller than 6’9”, and only one above 6’6”, it’s a strategy that makes intuitive sense: it’s difficult for larger players to get up and down the court quickly, playing fast maximizes offensive rebound opportunities by not allowing the defense to get set, etc. With N.C. State big man D.J. Funderburk still suspended, as far as we know, FIU might gain an additional carrot to keep them running, with their main obstacle inside gone (Funderburk’s suspension comes following an incident this fall in which he found his car booted in a campus parking lot and tried to drive away anyway).
But while Funderburk is certainly an inside presence, and Kevin Keatts’ teams have never shied away from pushing the tempo themselves, Funderburk was also one of the more effective offensive players in the ACC last year when he was on the court. His absence may allow FIU to score more, but the inverse effect on his own team should outweigh that. With this total climbing since it opened, it seems bettors are hoping on a track meet that, while it may materialize, will have a hard time being efficient enough to hit the over.
Pick: Under 165 (-110). Low confidence.
