Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,787 published picks, not including pending futures. 2% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
First, some college football futures, the odds for which come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. Then, college basketball.
ACC
If NC State can beat Wake Forest this weekend (which is about a tossup in terms of likelihood), they’ll have a good chance of clinching the Atlantic the next week, hosting Syracuse while Wake goes to Clemson (currently in the Atlantic, Wake has no conference losses, NCSU has one, and Clemson has two—one of which was to NCSU). Pitt’s the most likely Coastal champion, and Pitt’s solid, but these are great odds for the Wolfpack.
Pick: NC State to win +550. Low confidence.
Pac-12
Utah’s about as good as Oregon and has nearly won its division, while Oregon has some work to do. If they play anyone but Oregon out of the North, they’ll be a solid favorite.
Pick: Utah to win +105. Medium confidence.
Big 12
There are plenty of reasons to doubt Oklahoma State, but they’re probably going to be in the Big 12 Championship, where they might have something like a 35% chance to win. If they lose, Iowa State’s got a good chance of making it, where they’d have something like a 45% chance to win. Baylor’s a threat here, and Oklahoma’s deservedly the favorite, but this is a good tag-team for the portfolio.
Pick: Oklahoma State to win +350. Low confidence.
Pick: Iowa State to win +1200. Low confidence.
Big Ten
Don’t write off the Wolverines. Yes, this week’s a tough test at Penn State, but Ohio State might not be a double-digit favorite against them, and whoever wins the East should be favored over Wisconsin, who has better than a 50% chance of winning the West.
Pick: Wisconsin to win +600. Low confidence.
Pick: Michigan to win +1000. Low confidence.
Buffalo @ Michigan
KenPom projects Michigan to have the best defense in the country this season. We trust KenPom around here.
Pick: Michigan -13 (-110). Medium confidence.
Robert Morris @ Central Florida
Don’t sleep on UCF in the AAC. They return just about everybody.
Pick: UCF -16.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Pacific vs. Northern Colorado
This line has shrunk a lot since it opened, and it’s unclear why. It’s possible this is just what the market thinks. It’s possible something funky is happening (circular line shifting, home court confusion, line manipulation, etc.). It’s also possible there’s an injury, and I’m just not finding it.
If there’s an injury and you find out about it, sure, lay off. But if there isn’t anything, then these are great odds.
Pick: Pacific to win -120. Medium confidence.
