Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,394 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Chicago (AL) @ Cincinnati
There are a few parks where the park factor I use seems to differ from that of the market. Cincinnati’s is one of them. Over nine bets over the years, it’s worked out to a positive return. That’s a small sample, but for whatever it’s worth, the wind’s blowing out today.
Pick: Over 8 (-115). Low confidence.
San Francisco @ Colorado
Jon Gray’s off to a strong start, with a 3.15 ERA over six starts and a 3.04 xERA to match it. Is it for real? It’s hard to say. Last year was a bad year for the righty. Both his walks and his strikeouts are up, which is odd, and while his xERA’s good, his .247 BABIP seems unsustainable. For now, it’s probably fair to trust his projections, which incorporate some of the year’s performance so far but also acknowledge the struggles of 2020, and the more average performance of 2018 and 2019.
Pick: San Francisco to win -110. Low confidence.
Texas @ Minnesota
Hyeon-Jong Yang has turned in performances in Korea as strong as a 2.29 ERA in 2019, with a 2.59 FIP to back it up. Last year, he was at 4.70 and 3.97 in those metrics. That’s still decent in the KBO, and you don’t have to expect too much from him tonight to give this value. A 4.25-ERA quality outing would be enough.
Pick: Texas to win +142. Low confidence.
Cleveland @ Kansas City
Even if you assume Shane Bieber goes all nine innings, this total comes out too low.
Pick: Over 7 (-105). Low confidence.
Tampa Bay @ Anaheim
Is Anthony Rendon going to play tonight? We’ll see. Even if he doesn’t, though, this line is off by enough to give some value here.
Pick: Anaheim -1.5 (+155). Low confidence.
