Editor’s Note: Joe would say this isn’t good, but over a sample size of 260 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 1% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to at least not lose money.
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Three picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN are all great sources of data.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications. The justification for each is that the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it. The writeups are just words about the teams playing the games.
Anaheim @ Oakland
Less than two weeks ago, the Oakland Athletics’ playoff odds, according to FanGraphs, sat at just 4.8%. Entering today, they’re up to 13.5%, as the A’s have won ten of their last twelve to grab a share of the American League’s final wild card position.
Now, the A’s are only tied for that spot. And 13.5% odds aren’t really what a team is after. But this is also in the wake of last year, when the A’s had only a 3.1% playoff probability on June 15th according to the same model, so paying attention to the Oakland Athletics is more than justifiable.
Do the A’s really have a better chance than 13.5%? Possibly, but even then it would only be slight. My impression of the FanGraphs model is that it relies on current roster construction to make its projections. I don’t believe it accounts for any trades or (unlikely, but possible) free agent signings. But the A’s know their situation well—they understand that the Astros have the division locked down and they’d likely be an underdog against any possible wild card opponent unless they can get someone at home. All of which means their chances of hosting a playoff game, as of today, would likely be somewhere around 8% were FanGraphs publishing that probability, and their odds of advancing are fairly easy to figure out from there.
In short, we don’t really know whether the A’s will stick around, and while they don’t know that either, they at least have benchmarks for where they need to be to justify pursuing another playoff appearance. I, for one, would be fascinated to learn what those are.
Pick: Oakland to win +103. Low confidence.
Texas @ Seattle
Elsewhere in the AL West, the Rangers have not disappeared. They’ve played .500 baseball to date, and while their playoff odds on FanGraphs have yet to break 4%, they’re only a game and a half back of the second wild card spot almost exactly a third of the way through the season.
I mentioned this yesterday, I believe, and in the same breath alluded to Joey Gallo’s hot start. Gallo’s OPS sits well over 1.000, and his fWAR is already just a tenth of a win away from matching what it’s been in his other two full pro seasons (2.8).
So what’s happening?
Well, he appears to have had great luck on balls in play, posting an unsustainable .395 BABIP against a career BABIP of .274. But that may not all be luck. His average exit velocity, already one of the best in the league, is now the best in the league, sitting at 96.2 mph, a full 2.5 mph above his career average. He’s still hitting home runs in roughly 7% of his plate appearances, putting him on pace for another 40-homer season, but he’s hitting doubles and triples now on 5.9% of PA’s after averaging those on only 4.1% of PA’s the last two years.
So yes, Joey Gallo is probably having at least a little bit of good luck. But he’s also hitting the ball harder than ever, and harder than anyone, and it’s translating into more production on balls in play. All of which is terrifying for opposing pitchers, because it appears that at 25, the former top-ten prospect might be on his way to being a top-ten player.
Pick: Texas to win +116. Low confidence.
Pick: Over 9.5 -110. Low confidence.
