Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi would downplay how good this is, but over a sample size of 245 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have a 1% average return on investment when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been about as good as a bettor who’s correct on 53% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
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No lines looked great for individual games today, so I’m revisiting futures picks in the MLB. I’ll be doing this more and more often as the season approaches its conclusion (especially if I keep up my mediocre performance on daily moneylines), with the goal, as always, being to turn a positive return on investment.
While the Vegas consensus isn’t as readily available for these odds as it is for others, I took the best estimate I could find online. If you’re a regular reader, you know I did this a week and a half ago and found a bad estimate of the Vegas consensus—those picks have been scrubbed from the site and the record since there was no way one could get some of those odds at a reasonable book. These lines, contrarily to those, look similar to what you could find in a book, provided they’re offering these markets.
I’ll go through market by market, list what I picked back on March 27th, and then explain why I’m taking the picks I’m taking. We’ll start with divisions and work our way up to the World Series.
AL West
Picks already in the ledger:
Houston to win AL West -600. Low confidence. (3/27/2019)
As it stands, trusting the FanGraphs’ projection that the Astros have a 99.4% likelihood of winning the AL West, I’m in good shape, with over a 16% projected return on investment from my previous pick.
Still, even at -5000 odds, where they currently stand, that 99.4% number indicates picking the Astros will generate a positive return on investment. It’s a small payoff (2%), but it’s a payoff. And realistically, if the Astros don’t win the AL West, I’m willing to take the hit.
Pick: Houston to win AL West -5000. High confidence.
AL Central
Picks already in the ledger:
Cleveland to win AL Central -450. Low confidence. (3/27/2019)
The Twins have surprised. The Indians have also surprised. The two have done so in opposing directions. The Indians pick, therefore, is painful to look at right now.
Thankfully, the odds aren’t as confident in the Twins as FanGraphs is, or as FiveThirtyEight (much more cautious than FanGraphs on playoff projections) is. It’s possible the assumption the books are making is that the Indians will make a run at upgrading their roster between now and the Trade Deadline, but realistically, it’s hard to see the Twins passing up this opportunity, and the Twins have higher-end pieces in their farm system if they really want to push their chips to the middle.
The Twins are also six and a half games ahead of the Indians, and around Memorial Day, that’s significant. I’m keeping it at medium confidence here, which means even if the Twins do win the division I’m not set up to profit in this market, but my loss would be minimal, and I’ve tried to reserve high confidence picks such that they’re successful 100% of the time (I got lucky on the first one I made and haven’t made another since until today).
Pick: Minnesota to win AL Central -220. Medium confidence.
AL East
Picks already in the ledger:
New York (AL) to win AL East -120. Low confidence. (3/27/2019)
I regret not revisiting futures picks earlier, in part because with all the upheaval in the AL East, it’s possible there were good opportunities to get in on the Red Sox.
As it stands, things have settled down such that the Yankees’ division championship odds are the same as they were entering the season, and neither the Rays nor the Red Sox have odds that calculate out favorably right now.
I’d prefer to grab the Red Sox or Rays to cover my holes, but while the Yankees’ odds again look favorable, I’ll up my investment in them to increase my future flexibility.
Pick: New York (AL) to win AL East -120. Low confidence.
NL West
Picks already in the ledger:
Los Angeles (NL) to win NL West -400. Low confidence. (3/27/2019)
While the NL West race isn’t as much of a foregone conclusion as its counterpart in the American League, it’s comparable. Perhaps I’m undervaluing the Diamondbacks, or the Padres, the latter of which seems liable, though unlikely, to push their chips into the pot when others would advise patience. But it really does seem that the Dodgers have the division wrapped up, and while FiveThirtyEight advises caution, FanGraphs advises an increased investment.
Again, it’s a lot of risk for a small payoff, but the payoff isn’t that small compared to what I usually return on these picks.
Pick: Los Angeles (NL) to win NL West -2000. High confidence.
NL Central
Picks already in the ledger:
Chicago (NL) to win NL Central +175. Low confidence. (3/27/2019)
Perhaps it’s a reaction to last year, when, on this date, the Cubs were a sizable favorite to win the division (at least on Fangraphs, which pegged their chances at 62.5%), and even pulled ahead in the summer months only to be caught by the Brewers at the very end of the year. But the line on the Cubs, while less pessimistic than it was on Opening Day, is still pessimistic enough to have them as an underdog against the field.
FanGraphs and FiveThirtyEight disagree notably on the Cubs’ chances, which stems in large part from disagreements concerning the Brewers. FanGraphs doubts the Brewers because of their roster composition (I imagine, given what I know). FiveThirtyEight likes the Brewers because they won 95 games last year before the tiebreaker game, made it a few games into the NLCS, and are currently only two games back of the Cubs. The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle, but even averaged out it falls on the side of trusting the Cubs.
By projected return on investment (using the FanGraphs odds), this is the best bet you can make on a favorite in any MLB futures right now.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win NL Central +135. Medium confidence.
NL East
Picks already in the ledger:
Washington to win NL East +175. Low confidence. (3/27/2019)
The Nationals are ten games under .500. Things have been grim. Injuries have played a role, but while that’s an adequate excuse, it doesn’t change the fact that the Nationals are in a much worse place than anyone should have expected.
Meanwhile, the Phillies have performed at or above expectations, carving out a place for themselves atop the division.
Thankfully, the odds don’t seem to have noticed the Braves’ recent charge, or the Braves’ stockpile of young talent. Yes, it’s possible Atlanta’s front office won’t be willing to give away what Philadelphia’s will when it comes to retooling at the deadline, but at +220, the Braves are a good pick given where things stand.
And looking back at the Nationals, one advantage of all those injuries is that they’re now grossly undervalued on the market. This is a team that, fully healthy, could challenge the Cubs for the designation of second-best in the NL, and they’re playing in a division full of flawed teams. Can a reasonable argument really be made that the Mets are twice as likely as them to win the division, as the odds have it?
Given that the Braves pick would pay out more than double itself, doubling down on the Nationals at their new, poor odds is convenient. Even combined with the +175 pick, I now have a positive expected return on the Nats, if FanGraphs is to be trusted (and I do trust it on this front).
Pick: Atlanta to win NL East +220. Low confidence.
Pick: Washington to win NL East +1300. Low confidence.
ALCS
Picks already in the ledger:
Houston to win ALCS +300. Low confidence. (3/27/2019)
Cleveland to win ALCS +600. Low confidence. (3/27/2019)
Even with the extent to which the Astros have asserted their status as favorites in the AL, Cleveland’s struggles mean I currently have a negative expected return on my prior investments in this market.
Thankfully, the market’s been slow to adjust to the Twins, so I can change my overall projected return to something positive while plugging a hole, leaving me at least with half the viable contenders, including the favorite. In an ideal world, the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays will have a rollercoaster ride upon which all can be picked up at advantageous inflection points.
Pick: Minnesota to win ALCS +800. Low confidence.
NLCS
Picks already in the ledger:
Los Angeles (NL) to win NLCS +400. Low confidence. (3/27/2019)
Washington to win NLCS +550. Low confidence. (3/27/2019)
Back on the NL side, the Dodgers investment is looking good enough to outweigh the pain of the Nationals investment. As of right now, the Dodgers are at +188 to win the NLCS, which is actually somewhat favorable, showing how far ahead of the rest of the NL the Dodgers are.
But given that I’m already in on them, I’ll pass on the Dodgers today. It’s hard to imagine that line sliding more in the Dodgers’ favor as the season progresses, so part of the thought is that it’ll be there in a month if I want it. But also, the more I have on the Dodgers, the closer I get to a situation where I don’t make a profit in certain scenarios within this market. And while in general, I’m willing to sacrifice the worst-case scenario for the sake of the expected value, it’s a convenient hedge to just lay up on the Dodgers for now.
Both the Cubs and the Braves have favorable odds, though, so I’ll happily add them to the arsenal, leaving the Phillies, Brewers, Cardinals, and debatably the Padres and Diamondbacks as my only real holes in the National League.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win NLCS +450. Low confidence.
Pick: Atlanta to win NLCS +1100. Low confidence.
World Series
Picks already in the ledger:
New York (AL) to win World Series +600. Low confidence. (3/27/2019)
Houston to win World Series +700. Low confidence. (3/27/2019)
Los Angeles (NL) to win World Series +800. Low confidence. (3/27/2019)
Cleveland to win World Series +1200. Low confidence. (3/27/2019)
The New York and Cleveland picks here haven’t fared too well (though the New York one isn’t horrible by any stretch, and it’s nice to at least have something on them), but the Houston and Los Angeles picks have taken off, with the Astros currently down to +350 and the Dodgers at +450.
Neither of those lines looks good (the Astros are the favorites, but not that heavily, and as with the NLCS, the Dodgers aren’t going anywhere/aren’t worth doubling down on), but as we’ve seen in every other market in which they’re an option, people are doubting the Twins.
Take ‘em.
Pick: Minnesota to win World Series +1700. Low confidence.
