Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident guy-who-knows-numbers. He’d downplay how good this is, but over a sample size of 235 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 2% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 53% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
Two picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, and Spotrac are all great.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications. The justification for each is that the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two. The writeups are just words about the teams playing the games.
Houston @ Detroit
Justin Verlander is 36 years old, and by ERA, is pitching the best he has since 2011 (when, as you may remember, his 251 innings of 2.40-ERA ball won him the AL MVP).
Beneath the surface, though, things don’t look so rosy.
After granting a career-low 1.56 BB/9 IP last season, Verlander’s back to 2.20, which is still below his career 2.63 average but is trending upwards. His strikeouts, which similarly peaked at 12.20/9 IP last year, are down to 10.67—again, better than his career average (8.86), but headed in the wrong direction.
Those are still very good numbers, especially for a 36-year-old with nearly 3,000 career innings under his belt. But they indicate a step backwards, especially when viewed in conjunction with his 1.57 HR/9 IP, which would be a career worst.
Worse still, his ERA (2.51) has been propped up by both a .183 BABIP (his career average is .283) and a 94.6% LOB% (his career average is 74.8%). His FIP is 3.94—good, but not something that typically portends Cy Young contention.
Justin Verlander is, once again, pitching well, even by his own lofty standards. But don’t expect his luck to hold up forever.
Pick: Detroit to win +300. Low confidence.
St. Louis @ Atlanta
Michael Wacha has never been a world-beating pitcher. He was promising as a young starter, posting a 3.38 ERA over more than 180 innings in 2015, a year he began as a 23-year-old, but over his total career, he’s struggled to put everything together, both in terms of performance and health.
If things don’t improve this year, Wacha’s career might be facing an existential threat. He’s walking over a batter an inning, and his 5.35 ERA isn’t what the Cardinals want. Worse still, FIP doesn’t think he’s been at all unlucky, putting his fielding-independent metric at 5.46.
Troubling times in St. Louis.
Pick: Atlanta to win -130. Low confidence.
