Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,417 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 1.3% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Chicago (NL) @ Cleveland
The Cubs are without Kris Bryant today, Javy Báez is in the lineup with a bad back, Jason Heyward might be playing with a bone bruise on his hand, and 5.40 FIP (the ERA and xERA are worse) Zach Davies is on the mound.
Still, just going lineup vs. lineup, FanGraphs has the Cubs 50.3% likely to win (and FanGraphs is aggressive with home field advantage), which means Báez and Heyward would have to be a lot worse than their average value for this to not be a positive-eROI play. If Báez was really ailing that much, the Cubs would presumably scratch him. And while he might yet be scratched, it hasn’t happened yet.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win +110. Low confidence.
Game 2: San Diego @ Colorado
The idea behind this line being as long as it is (and it’s a very short line) is that the Padres, ailed by Covid, will be playing with a backup crew after likely winning the first game, and that backup crew will be a mess.
The problem with that is that for this line to be even just in stay-away territory, the Padres would have to be six WAR worse than their normal selves, meaning they’d have to be the Washington Nationals. Blake Snell vs. Austin Gomber is still Snell’s matchup to lose.
Pick: San Diego to win -154. Low confidence.
Toronto @ Atlanta
This is right on the fence with our guardrails, but it leans towards taking it, so we’ll take it. The hope here is that at least one of Hyun Jin Ryu or Max Fried doesn’t have a great night. Eight’s not a lot for these lineups.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-115). Low confidence.
St. Louis @ Milwaukee
The Cardinals burned their best bullpen arms finishing off last night’s win, but the Brewers have a few key pieces who’ve now thrown on three of four days, and they’re still missing Christian Yelich. John Gant is not his 2.15 ERA, but he’s not terrible. There’s a decent-enough chance the Cardinals stay hot tonight and the Brewers stay cold.
Pick: St. Louis to win +153. Low confidence.
