Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,111 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. That is, of course, unprofitable, and while our projections do indicate we’ll get back to even or profitable by the end of the week, with conference tournament futures ongoing, we want to be transparent with you here.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
Another round of conference tournament futures today, for which the odds come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Sacramento State vs. Idaho
Early morning tip in Boise, and the thinking in the market seems to be that this will keep scoring down. But coming out sluggish can translate in multiple ways, and at least in our experience with November nonconference tournaments, this thinking can be overblown.
Pick: Over 139 (-110). Medium confidence.
Charlotte vs. Rice
Two efficient shooting teams, with the total perhaps held down because of the weird gym they use in Frisco? Are they still doing that? With the two games going on at once? Either way, the offenses are being underestimated here.
Pick: Over 141 (-110). Medium confidence.
Abilene Christian vs. Utah Valley
Utah Valley does struggle to protect the ball, but Abilene Christian fouls more than anyone else in the country and Utah Valley’s good at drawing that. Might be a war of attrition, but the Wolverines should get the win.
Pick: Utah Valley +2.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
And now, the futures, to which we’ve been adding as the day’s gone on but are done on now until morning.
Big Sky Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
Yes, three units on Southern Utah. With them, there’s the benefit of lining up against Northern Colorado in the likely semifinals rather than Weber State. With Northern Arizona, it’s just one of those things where the near-zero odds got a little too long.
Pick: Southern Utah to win +325. Medium confidence.
Pick: Southern Utah to win +325. Low confidence.
Pick: Northern Arizona to win +25000. Low confidence.
Atlantic 10 Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
We’re low on St. Bonaventure and VCU (high on the Rams to make the NCAA Tournament, low on them to do it via auto-bid), so some of this is coming from that. Some of it’s also coming from the value Saint Joe’s and SLU get from being in the same corner as La Salle. It’s a wide-open tournament, and while that’s said more about Davidson and Dayton’s situation, it applies further down the standings as well.
Pick: Saint Louis to win +750. Medium confidence.
Pick: Rhode Island to win +8000. Low confidence.
Pick: Saint Joseph’s to win +30000. Low confidence.
Mountain West Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
Utah State and Fresno State don’t have the résumés of the Mountain West’s four likely tournament teams, but on a neutral court (which most of these will be), they’d each be about a tossup to beat Wyoming, and not more than a three or four-point underdog against anyone in the league. They each have an extra game to play, but that extra game is cleanly manageable.
Pick: Utah State to win +1100. Low confidence.
Pick: Fresno State to win +1200. Low confidence.
SWAC Men’s Basketball Tournament
PVAM’s the 8-seed here, but by KenPom, their path is almost as easy as that of their opponent today, Alcorn State, the SWAC’s regular season champion. Should they win as a one-point underdog, they’ll likely be favored on Friday against a Florida A&M or Alabama A&M team playing on short rest. From there, yes, they’d most likely have to deal with Southern or Texas Southern, but at that point, we’ve got value we can work with on this.
Pick: Prairie View A&M to win +1000. Low confidence.
Pac-12 Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
Only value at the very low end in this one, and on Colorado, who benefits from the market not understanding that Oregon isn’t very good at basketball. Utah and Cal have virtually no shot, but Utah has a pretty great path, all things considered, and Cal at least doesn’t have to play Arizona until Saturday at the earliest.
Pick: Colorado to win +3000. Low confidence.
Pick: Utah to win +25000. Low confidence.
Pick: California to win +50000. Low confidence.
Big East Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
St. John’s has home court advantage, technically, and that isn’t nothing. Villanova’s the clear favorite, but beyond them, it’s a pretty open field until you get to today’s underdogs, and with St. John’s playing on one of its own courts and Seton Hall quietly a very good team, that’s who the value’s with here.
Pick: Seton Hall to win +1500. Low confidence.
Pick: St. John’s to win +2200. Low confidence.
MEAC Men’s Basketball Tournament
Norfolk State’s a pretty big favorite here, but there’s value on the 5 and 6-lines by virtue of what seem to be some disparities between single-game odds and these futures odds for their first round matchups tomorrow.
Pick: South Carolina State to win +2500. Low confidence.
Pick: Maryland-Eastern Shore to win +2500. Low confidence.
SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament
More very long longshots. Being on the Auburn/Arkansas/LSU side of the bracket is generally advantageous this week, relative to facing the combined heft of Tennessee and Kentucky. Also helping these three is that each will be favored in its opening game. It’s not outlandish to think we could have two of the three alive in the quarterfinals, all with great value in our pocket at that point.
Pick: Florida to win +5000. Low confidence.
Pick: Vanderbilt to win +20000. Low confidence.
Pick: Mississippi to win +50000. Low confidence.
Big Ten Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
This is a little ridiculous, but again…there’s value on the longshots, and with the numbers game aspect of it, that value starts to get close to having a real chance of coming through.
With each of these teams, the possible assumption holding them back is that they’ve quit. This is an odd assumption to make about a team playing on this kind of stage, though, especially when one win could get them back into things. Each has good players. Even the longest shots.
Pick: Michigan State to win +1500. Medium confidence.
Pick: Indiana to win +2500. Medium confidence.
Pick: Maryland to win +10000. Low confidence.
Pick: Northwestern to win +10000. Low confidence.
Pick: Penn State to win +30000. Low confidence.
Pick: Minnesota to win +50000. Low confidence.
Conference USA Men’s Basketball Tournament
Finally. Value on a contender.
North Texas isn’t the favorite in this tournament, to hear the odds tell it. UAB, to hear the odds tell it, is the favorite. But North Texas is the best team in the league, and while they don’t have any great outs in the semifinal, the chalkiest version of this does give them a better path than the Blazers.
Pick: North Texas to win +200. Medium confidence.
Pick: North Texas to win +200. Medium confidence.
Pick: North Texas to win +200. Medium confidence.
Pick: North Texas to win +200. Medium confidence.
Pick: North Texas to win +200. Medium confidence.
MAAC Men’s Basketball Tournament
I haven’t seen odds yet, but there’s a chance Quinnipiac, who finished last in the MAAC in the regular season, will be favored in tomorrow’s quarterfinal against Siena, with Iona still a long way across the bracket and capable of being beaten. Not favored in their own quarterfinal but capable of competing is Fairfield, who could blow the non-Iona side wide open with an upset of Saint Peter’s tonight. Our MAAC portfolio grows, and our chances of hitting rise to better than 1-in-4.
Pick: Fairfield to win +2000. Low confidence.
Pick: Quinnipiac to win +3300. Low confidence.
Big 12 Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
Oklahoma and K-State are of a kind with TCU and Iowa State—flawed, but capable of beating anyone in the Big 12. At these odds, they’re valuable, and if even one of them can get through to the semifinals, we’ll be in a good position.
Pick: Oklahoma to win +3000. Low confidence.
Pick: Kansas State to win +6000. Low confidence.
