Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,727 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,606 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
For context on the college basketball futures: We started with 100 units in our portfolio, intending to keep 50 set aside in case we needed to hedge. We’re down 3.6 units so far, and we had 21 units pending before today’s futures were placed, across a total of 3 plays (both teams in the Southland Championship, plus Northern Arizona). So, we’re betting from a 75.4-unit bankroll on the futures front, though we are going to get at least 11.5 units back (for a 1.5-unit profit) on the Southland game.
Conference USA Tournament
The odds are narrow on UAB, which is what you’d expect from a team with a lot of public interest. We like the best team in the league, who’s answered the call again and again throughout conference play. No bid thief here.
Pick: Florida Atlantic to win +150. Medium confidence.
SWAC Tournament
This is more on the value side. Prairie View might be narrowly favored tomorrow in their opener, even as a 6-seed, and from there, they’d only need two. Grambling’s wins have more attention, and that’s deserved, but these guys did beat up Washington State early in the year. Washington State wasn’t playing well, but the Panthers aren’t nothing.
Pick: Prairie View A&M to win +900. Low confidence.
Utah vs. Stanford
The two teams who, “Oh yeah, those guys beat Arizona.”
Utah’s late slide looks a little better when you look at the details: They’ve lost five straight, but three of those were to tournament teams, the fourth might have been, and the fifth was on the road against Colorado. Utah got a little healthier this weekend. We trust them to be the better team tonight.
Pick: Utah to win (-116). Low confidence.
North Carolina State vs. Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech is not good enough offensively to play so little defense. NC State has the guys to eat them alive.
Pick: NC State -2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
