Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,909 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, but only single-day bets.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 116–81–1 and we’re down 3.22 units. We’ve mostly been betting moneyline favorites the last couple months, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday, February 23rd. Our portfolio has 350 units, and it’s looking like we’ll invest roughly 120 of those before conference tournaments are over. We’re currently investing six units per day. Today will be different because of time constraints, but we’ll catch up tomorrow.
Northwestern @ Michigan State
This is a big number, but that’s part of what we like about it. Northwestern is banged up and running on some fumes, yet their identity is one of defying odds like these. At this point in the year, we think the odds’ lean away from kenpom is usually correct. We don’t have the data to confirm that, but that’s our guess, and we like Michigan State to create some serious bubble worry for the guys from Evanston.
Pick: Michigan State –9 (–115). Low confidence.
BYU @ Iowa State
UConn @ Marquette
With these two, we aren’t as sure about the lines, but we do think UConn gets it done against a Tyler Kolek-less Marquette, and we think Iowa State protects Hilton Coliseum. There’s a lot to like with both of these as moneylines. Enough for us to combine them into this parlay.
Pick: Parlay – Iowa State & UConn to win (–117). Low confidence.
Big South Tournament
Markets are closing too soon for us to conscientiously publish any futures today in the NCAA Tournament markets. Apologies for missing whatever Wake Forest opportunity existed in those. We’ll have eleven units tomorrow, and thankfully the portfolio’s still in good shape, even after losing all three of our ASUN units last night.
We do like the value on USC Upstate to win the Big South. It is extraordinarily unlikely, but the payout is so big that if our model says the eROI’s positive, we’re going to take it. With these guys 4.5-point underdogs tonight, we might even be able to hedge from this if they take down Radford in their opener.
Pick: USC Upstate to win +20000. Low confidence.
