Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,328 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Opening Day is tomorrow, making today the annual day to look through the futures. There’s plenty of value out there to be had, but for the purposes of slow-playing it (this isn’t a caution against betting today so much as it’s a reaction to continued availability of value on the market as the season progresses), we have just two today. As always with futures, the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus.
NL Central Champion
This is equal parts a bet on the Brewers and a bet against the Cardinals. Nolan Arenado’s good, but he’s not MVP caliber anymore, and the same has been true for a little while now for Paul Goldschmidt. Add in that the Cardinals’ rotation and bullpen are uninspiring, and it’s odd that they’re viewed as the favorites, especially when the Brewers have that lights-out bullpen and a tendency to go for it in recent years if the opportunity is there to chase playoff success. In other words, I’d be more surprised if Milwaukee didn’t improve, should they enter the trade deadline as buyers, than I would be if St. Louis didn’t improve.
Pick: Milwaukee +300. Low confidence.
ALCS Champion
The Astros were mediocre last year. They finished the regular season below .500. But while their pitching staff is certainly fading, they still have the best lineup in the American League, and we’ve had a third of a season now to factor in how they perform with measures in place to cut down on sign stealing. I wouldn’t call them favorites to win the pennant, but they do look like the second best American League team, and they’re worth more than 10-to-1 odds.
Pick: Houston +1000. Low confidence.
