Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,041 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. So…dead even. All of that, for dead even.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
Plenty of conference tournament futures today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Hampton vs. High Point
Marquis Godwin missed Hampton’s last game, and I haven’t found his status for tonight. But while Godwin certainly makes the Pirate defense better, it’s hard to believe he makes them three whole points better, especially when that isn’t the magnitude reflected in the spread. It’s possible he plays, in which case this makes sense. It’s possible he doesn’t play, in which case this is still probably the right move.
Pick: Under 136.5 (-108). Medium confidence.
St. Francis (PA) @ Wagner
More on Elijah Ford’s absence below, but basically, we should know what we’re getting again from Wagner by now.
Pick: Wagner -11 (-110). Medium confidence.
SIU-Edwardsville vs. Tennessee State
Again, some injury uncertainty here, with Marcus Fitzgerald missing TSU’s last game. Fitzgerald’s fairly balanced between his offensive and defensive impact, though (using Evan Miyakawa’s site), so the total shouldn’t be affected to the degree it evidently is.
Pick: Over 135.5 (-109). Medium confidence.
Big South Men’s Basketball Tournament
With the Big South moving away from home courts and into Charlotte, the tournament’s more wide-open this year, something amplified by the fact there isn’t one clear best team in this league. Longwood, Winthrop, and Gardner-Webb stack up similarly on paper, and break down as something like 25%, 22%, and 20% likely to win the tournament, respectively.
The assortment below doesn’t quite give us a 50% chance of hitting, but it’s a starting point, and we can probably hedge from it down the line if we’d like. We’ll lose two teams today, but at least three, probably four, and hopefully five will be in the quarterfinals.
One note on units: We’ve structured this to put five times the amount on G-W and UNCA that we put on each of the five longshots.
Pick: Gardner-Webb to win +500. Medium confidence.
Pick: Gardner-Webb to win +550. Medium confidence.
Pick: Gardner-Webb to win +550. Low confidence.
Pick: UNC-Asheville to win +750. Medium confidence.
Pick: UNC-Asheville to win +750. Medium confidence.
Pick: UNC-Asheville to win +750. Low confidence.
Pick: High Point to win +2200. Low confidence.
Pick: North Carolina A&T to win +10000. Low confidence.
Pick: Radford to win +17500. Low confidence.
Pick: Presbyterian to win +20000. Low confidence.
Pick: Hampton to win +50000. Low confidence.
Northeast Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
We’re doing the same unit thing here.
The thing with Wagner is that they’re missing Elijah Ford. The other thing with Wagner is that they’ve been missing Elijah Ford for a few weeks now. KenPom and other ratings systems have caught up, and KenPom and those ratings systems seem to be in agreement that there’s value here, even with a potential road game coming for the Seahawks in the championship game. Quick simulations on our part project around a 40% chance they come out of this with an NCAA Tournament bid.
Pick: Wagner to win +210. Medium confidence.
Pick: Wagner to win +210. Medium confidence.
Pick: Wagner to win +210. Low confidence.
