Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,049 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, but only the single-day picks. The futures will be back tomorrow.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 141–107–2 and we’re down 5.74 units. We went through a stretch of mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
UNLV @ Seton Hall
Seton Hall’s laying two more points here than kenpom would imply, and I don’t know if that’s about motivation or about home-court advantage. I’m suspicious it’s the latter, and for as cool as Walsh Gymnasium is, I don’t know if home-court advantage functions the same there as it does at the Prudential Center. I don’t know that it does or doesn’t, but the median expectation should be that it’s the exact same.
Pick: UNLV +6 (–110). Low confidence.
VCU @ Utah
The same thing’s happening here with Utah, although the Utes are playing on their normal home court. Is this about the distance UNLV and VCU are each traveling at the end of a long, taxing season? Maybe so. We’re just skeptical these games really differ from their fundamentals.
Pick: VCU +8 (–110). Low confidence.
