Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident bracketologist, as well as our all-around numbers guy. He’d say that you shouldn’t read too much into it, since the sample size is only 130 completed bets (there are outstanding futures picks), but his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 54% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
College basketball is winding down.
This doesn’t do the end of the road justice in terms of energy, but as the season changes, there are fewer basketball games from which to choose for these picks. Thankfully (seeing as I’ve been asked by the Stu’s in charge to keep doing this), baseball is starting.
So, one basketball pick for tonight, and a boatload of MLB futures picks. As always, the lines come from the Vegas consensus at the time I write this, or, in the case of the MLB odds, the best estimate I can get of the Vegas consensus.
Colorado @ Texas – NIT Quarterfinal
Texas is without Jaxson Hayes, and it’s hard to say exactly what that means. Yes, they haven’t played stellar basketball in his absence, but they were prone to playing below their ability before he went down, and he’s only been gone for two and a half games.
Today’s line indicates, to me, that oddsmakers are saying Hayes makes Texas somewhere between two and five points better over the course of a game. This isn’t an outrageous claim—Hayes is an extraordinarily efficient offensive player, and one of the best shot-blockers in the country. Still, while Jericho Sims (who seems to be the primary replacement for Hayes’ minutes) is no Hayes, he was a recruit of similar caliber, and at his best, he’s been just as efficient offensively as Hayes.
All of this is to say that while Texas certainly misses Hayes, especially as an inside presence defensively, and Texas is certainly a worse team without Hayes, the degree to which they’re a worse team may be overestimated by oddsmakers. Yes, Tyler Bey and Colorado will compete inside, and yes, Texas will likely need to find ways to score that aren’t three-pointers, but Texas’ overall talent level exceeds that of Colorado by enough to project this to have a positive return on investment, despite a wide confidence interval.
Pick: Texas -5.5 (-110). Low confidence.
MLB Futures Bets
To be entirely up front with this, here’s what I did:
I went through the odds, identified at what percent likelihood each would project a positive return on investment, then checked that percent likelihood against Fangraphs’ Playoff Odds.
To be frank, I didn’t do the research necessary to evaluate Fangraphs’ Playoff Odds, but given how little data on their historical accuracy is publicly available, given the statistical rigor of Fangraphs, and given how wide a few of the disparities are, I thought it worthwhile to take every mathematically advantageous pick. Yes, the confidence interval is such that the true projected return on investment may, on the aggregate, be negative, but more likely than not, it’s positive.
Here are the picks:
Houston to win the AL West -600. Low confidence.
Cleveland to win the AL Central -450. Low confidence.
New York to win the AL East -120. Low confidence.
Los Angeles to win the NL West -400. Low confidence.
Chicago to win the NL Central +175. Low confidence.
Washington to win the NL East +175. Low confidence.
Cleveland to win the ALCS +600. Low confidence.
Houston to win the ALCS +300. Low confidence.
Washington to win the NLCS +550. Low confidence.
Los Angeles to win the NLCS +400. Low confidence.
Cleveland to win the World Series +1200. Low confidence.
Los Angeles (NL) to win the World Series +800. Low confidence.
Houston to win the World Series +700. Low confidence.
New York (AL) to win the World Series +600. Low confidence.
