Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,287 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. That is, of course, unprofitable, and while our projections do indicate we’ll get back to even or profitable by the beginning of November (we have a strong history on MLB futures), or possibly by the end of next week (we have a lot of units down on BYU and Washington State to win the NIT, and how the hedging situation shakes out with that is unclear), we want to be transparent with you here.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
Another college basketball future today, for which the odds come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Wake Forest @ Texas A&M
This line’s pretty true, but Wake Forest likes to move the ball up and down the floor and Texas A&M isn’t all that averse to doing a little bit of that themselves. Offensive rebounds should be plentiful, extending possessions, but free throws should also be plentiful, driving up efficiency.
Pick: Over 145.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Washington State @ BYU
These two teams are roughly equal on the court, which the line reflects, but I think it’s underestimating the home-court advantage BYU will have. The fans that showed up in the second round were into it, and by the time you get to the NIT quarterfinals, generally fanbases are treating it as a pretty big game, as we saw in Charlottesville last night. BYU, at home, not a lot of points to have to take.
Pick: BYU -2 (-110). Medium confidence.
And the future:
NCAA Tournament
This has good value, as a few of these do, and it gives us a tiny slice of an angle on Arizona, who we’ve been missing. Raises our profit probability on the NCAAT portfolio from 53% to 54%, and pulls our median and mean results up as well.
Pick: UCLA to beat Arizona in National Championship Game +8500. Low confidence.
