Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,701 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Pitt @ Notre Dame
We like Mike Brey around here, and on the occasion of his final home game in South Bend, we hope his team answers the bell against a mediocre Pitt buoyed by the woefulness that is the ACC.
We just don’t see that bell getting answered.
Pick: Pitt -3.5 (-108). Low confidence.
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky
Vanderbilt has won close and lost big, which is why they’ve got such a big gap between their résumé metrics and their power rating. Expect the latter tonight.
Pick: Kentucky -9.5 (-113). Low confidence.
Missouri @ LSU
Mizzou needs to take care of business on the road in this one, sitting ever so close to locking themselves into the NCAA Tournament. They’re good enough to do it, and we expect them to get it done. This team shows up.
Pick: Missouri -4 (-110). Low confidence.
