Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,240 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. That is, of course, unprofitable, and while our projections do indicate we’ll get back to even or profitable by early April, with college basketball futures ongoing, we want to be transparent with you here.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
More college basketball futures today, for which the odds come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus with the futures. First, though:
Mississippi State @ Virginia
We can guess pretty strongly that Mississippi State’s going to try, based on how they’ve played in their last few NIT’s. So on a thin board for spreads, we like that. The over’s a little dicier, but KenPom has this all the way down at 59 possessions and still has the final mark at 127. If that’s the efficiency rate, they should hit 121.5 at about any tempo.
Pick: Over 121.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Pick: Mississippi State +3 (-110). Medium confidence.
Iona @ Florida
It’s Florida’s defense that slows their tempo down, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see these teams get out and run a bit. Between that and all the free throw chances the Gaels create, on both ends, it’s easy to see the winner hitting 75.
Pick: Over 142.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Now, the futures, where we’re basically just topping off our tank:
NCAA Tournament
These, plus the NIT future below, bring us up to about a 56% chance of hitting on at least one future in our current portfolio. Hitting one would make us profitable on the endeavor. Building the portfolio here.
Pick: Murray State to make Final Four +5000. Low confidence.
Pick: Iowa State to make Final Four +7000. Low confidence.
Pick: Vermont to make Final Four +10000. Low confidence.
NIT
We’re down to 23 NIT teams remaining, and Saint Louis has only the 14th-best chance of winning, but given they’re 3.9% likely to win the tournament (per our simulations) and 70.8% likely to win tonight (again, in our simulations), we can guess that a win tonight over Northern Iowa would pull them up to a 5.5% shot at an NIT title. That would probably get them to being roughly the 10th-most probable champion, leaving us with most likely four or five of those ten likeliest entering the second round. Not a bad place to be.
Pick: Saint Louis to win +3300. Medium confidence.
