Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,757 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
No new futures today. Just the games tonight.
Texas Southern vs. Fairleigh Dickinson
Texas Southern has everything going in their favor here, and this line is close enough for free throws to win it like it did last night. They’re more tested, they’re better, they have higher upside…it’s all Texas Southern here.
Pick: Texas Southern -2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Oklahoma State @ Youngstown State
I don’t think playing on the road helps Oklahoma State, but I do think it might ring the bell, and I like the odds of them answering it. Their offense should not have the trouble it’s been having against Big 12 defenses. The talent gap is too big for Youngstown’s shoddy D to survive.
Pick: Oklahoma State -5.5 (-109). Low confidence.
UCF @ Florida
I really think water has found its level with Florida post-Castleton. And I think that level’s higher than UCF’s.
Pick: Florida -2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Sam Houston State @ Santa Clara
Santa Clara doesn’t have much in the way of home court advantage aside from being a long way away, and I’m not terribly concerned about that with the Bearkats, who did just fine flying around the WAC. We like SHSU’s defense and threes here. It’s a bad matchup for the Broncos. How the game’s officiated might matter, but we think SHSU makes it happen with its aggression.
Pick: Sam Houston State +4.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Nevada vs. Arizona State
The Mountain West narrative has gotten too big. Nevada’s the better team here.
Pick: Nevada to win +125. Low confidence.
UC Irvine @ Oregon
This feels like an overreaction to Eastern Washington last night. It’s a similar recipe, but the two aren’t much correlated.
Pick: Oregon -7 (-110). Low confidence.
UCF beat Florida to death! (And I was probably one of the few who predicted UCF would beat Florida).
Once in a while I get a prediction right, lol.