Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,937 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, in both single-day bets and futures form.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 123–88–1 and we’re down 3.47 units. We went through a stretch of mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday, February 23rd. Our portfolio has 350 units, and we’re still on track to invest roughly 120 of those before conference tournaments are over. We’re investing six or seven per day.
BYU vs. UCF
We’re intrigued by the concept that ratings systems get out of whack on the Mountain West as the conference season goes on—that the advantages of altitude lead to an accidental overweighting. We don’t fully buy it yet, but there’s some compelling data (shoutout Three Man Weave), and long story short, we like the thought of that mixed with a 10:30 AM start for BYU’s body clocks right after daylight savings time, especially given how much we think the market can overrate rest these weeks. Give us UCF to keep it interesting.
Pick: UCF +6 (–115). Low confidence.
Washington vs. USC
Mike Hopkins is reportedly a dead man walking in Seattle, and USC, as everyone will have you know, is hotter than hot. They…beat Arizona. And this Washington team.
USC is definitely playing better. That much is true. But they’re not suddenly the top-25 team they were supposed to be at the beginning of the year. And while a lot of teams fold under a lame duck coach, not all teams do. The phenomenon is rare enough that it’s easy to make too much of it. This is a huge narrative game. We like betting on narratives to be carried away.
(Update: We didn’t realize the Hopkins news had been formally announced. No change to the thoughts behind the bet, but wanted to correct that.)
Pick: Washington +3 (–105). Low confidence.
SWAC Tournament
We’ve got more wonky conference tournament lines, today in the SWAC. Bethune-Cookman has some injury concerns, but the value’s good and the lines are variable, which makes us think this is more an opportunity than an injury adjustment.
Pick: Alabama State to win +1800. Low confidence.
Pick: Bethune-Cookman to win +2500. Low confidence.
Conference USA Tournament
FIU’s into the C-USA quarterfinals, and the draw isn’t that bad. They’re across the bracket from Louisiana Tech and if they can pull off the upset today over Sam Houston (it’d be a huge upset), they get a day of rest before facing Liberty or UTEP. Bad probability, good value.
Pick: FIU to win +10000. Low confidence.
Big East Conference Tournament
Does St. John’s get much of a home court advantage playing the Big East Tournament at MSG? We still kind of think they do. Even without the crowd being wholly on your side, there’s value to playing in a place you’re used to playing, and to being in your own city.
Also, Seton Hall is a good first round draw, and while UConn might be looking for the Big East Tournament crown more earnestly than last year, there’s at least a chance they’re looking too far ahead when the semifinals get here.
Pick: St. John’s to win +1100. Low confidence.
American Athletic Conference Tournament
Sacramento State couldn’t quite get it done for us, but we have two more super-value bets at low, low, low probabilities. The idea with these—and this is how we approach superspeedway betting with NASCAR, too—is that numbers games are good. It hurts our chances of profiting this year, but over the long run, we will hit on enough of these to pay for the rest. We trust our model on this kind of stuff. We believe the opportunity is real. Especially in a league like the American with two of the most noteworthily overrated teams in the country.
Pick: Tulane to win +15000. Low confidence.
Pick: Wichita State to win +20000. Low confidence.
Mountain West Conference Tournament
For the sake of probability, though, we will take Colorado State rather than UC Riverside for our seventh play today. Part of the comfort here is that we know the Mountain West better than we know the Big West, so we’re more in tune with injuries and matchups and all that stuff that doesn’t necessarily add value to the bet, but again, adds some comfort. We know Colorado State can beat all these teams, and we get why the market’s a little low on them (they’re cold), and we’re ok with the risk associated with those factors.
Pick: Colorado State to win +850. Low confidence.
