Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 896 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. More broadly, it’s adequate when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three futures for tournaments beginning today, plus an over tonight in the MAAC.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Siena vs. Manhattan—MAAC Quarterfinals
Manhattan won last night by thoroughly bullying Fairfield’s offense into submission. After allowing the Stags 50 points in the regular season finale, they yielded just 43, as Fairfield recorded more turnovers than made field goals.
The Jaspers, for those wondering, still play that Rick Pitino-inspired defense that got so much attention back in 2014, when Manhattan coach Steve Masiello matched up with his mentor in the NCAA Tournament’s first round. They’re aggressive. They force turnovers. They foul a lot, and make teams work for brackets.
The turnovers could become a problem for Siena. The pace should be slow. But it should not be 57-possessions slow, as it was last night in the Manhattan game. Siena is no Fairfield offensively. And that goes for pace as well as their ability to score. Expect Siena to knock down some threes. Expect a game in the 60’s.
Pick: Over 126 (-110). Low confidence.
Futures: Various Conference Tournaments
There will most likely be some surprises this week. We don’t know where, or who, but we have some ideas. Specifically, our model points out three teams to keep an eye on in the power conferences (it pointed out a few others, but there were lurking variables with those that got them nixed). These are those three:
Stanford
Stanford’s chances to win the Pac-12 are only something like 12%. They get Cal today, but after that they’ve got a UCLA team that may not have yet found its ceiling. That’s just the quarterfinals.
But while it’s possible UCLA hasn’t found its ceiling yet, it’s also possible they found it these past two Saturdays. For three weeks, UCLA’s KenPom rating did nothing but improve. Now, at least for the time being, its plateaued following a loss at USC. UCLA is still a better team than the one that lost to 15 by Stanford in Westwood in January, but that doesn’t mean they’re not overvalued.
As for Stanford? They’ve got the seventh-best defense in the country by KenPom rating. And while they struggle to protect the ball, they were the most efficient shooting team in the Pac-12 over conference play. Should they get past Cal today, tomorrow should be about a tossup. After that, hedging would become an option for those interested.
Minnesota
Minnesota has not, to date, had a very good year. They’re two games under .500 entering today. They’ve lost eight of their last eleven. They finished twelfth in a fourteen-team league. They’re in danger of missing the NIT.
Still, KenPom has them rated as the 29th-best team in the country. And KenPom has a very good record in March.
Daniel Oturu is one of the most potent offensive forces in the country. Marcus Carr is one of the best point guards in a strong league. Every game after today will be a tough draw, but the Gophers did catch a break in lining up across the bracket from Michigan State, Ohio State, and Maryland—the three best teams in the Big Ten.
It’s not a good chance, but it’s a chance.
Missouri
Finally, the biggest of these longshots, and a team that doesn’t play until tomorrow. Similarly to Stanford, part of Missouri’s current value likely comes from their path—Texas A&M has played much better of late than was true earlier in the year. Still, Mizzou might be favored tomorrow, and at 75-to-1 odds, a team with a 50/50 shot to make the quarterfinals in a league whose best team is hardly in KenPom’s top thirty (Kentucky is one spot ahead of Minnesota, for those wondering how the Big Ten and SEC compare) is a good bet.
Also, Jeremiah Tilmon’s put up some impressive numbers since returning a couple weeks ago.
Pick: Stanford to win Pac-12 Tournament (+1000). Low confidence.
Pick: Minnesota to win Big Ten Tournament (+3000). Low confidence.
Pick: Missouri to win SEC Tournament (+7500). Low confidence.
