Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,279 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.7% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Futures lines, as usual, come from Bovada due to the absence of a reliable Vegas consensus. But first:
Big East Tournament: Georgetown vs. Marquette
Marquette’s won four of five, including the infamous pounding of UNC in Chapel Hill. They also struggled to hold off DePaul during that stretch, and the other wins—against Butler and Xavier—aren’t exactly earthshaking. Look for Georgetown’s shooters to keep this interesting.
Pick: Georgetown +3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Patriot League Tournament: Bucknell @ Colgate
Colgate has only played three teams this year, which causes problems for some ratings systems (see: NET). But at the end of the day, you kind of have to trust KenPom, right? That system has the Raiders a 16-point favorite despite being lower on them than any other ranking on the NCAA’s team sheets, and by a significant margin. Plus, at least in my experience, there’s more luck with KenPom at the beginning of the year than in the middle of the year, at least on outliers like this, which signifies that KenPom’s priors, which may still be influencing Colgate’s rating, are pretty good.
Pick: Colgate -11 (-110). Low confidence.
ACC Tournament: North Carolina vs. Notre Dame
Can Mike Brey get more magic tonight?
If the holdup is that Notre Dame looked like crap against Wake Forest, that’s some strong recency bias. If the holdup is that Notre Dame isn’t all that deep, and therefore will be winded tonight, that’s possibly overblown, with only Prentiss Hubb playing more than 33 minutes (his 38 were just above his season average per two halves). If the holdup is Cormac Ryan’s hip, well, he looked pretty healthy on the final possession last night.
Notre Dame’s a deserved longshot. But compared to the board, they’re one of the more undervalued today.
Pick: Notre Dame +6.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Now, the futures:
Big Ten Tournament Champion
Have ye forgotten the Hawkeyes?
Iowa, struggles against Indiana and Minnesota that one time and all, is a good team that plays great offense. Their defense has improved. They haven’t played noticeably worse, on the aggregate, with Jack Nunge out.
Interestingly here, Iowa isn’t on Michigan State’s side of the bracket. In the ACC, we’re seeing such a heavy push on Duke that it seesaws the Virginia half of the bracket into valuable territory. That isn’t happening here. That might be happening again in the Big Ten, and when combined with a possible overvaluation of Illinois by the market, it’s creating some value with Luka Garza & Co. A top-five team, realistically, getting +450 odds to win their conference? Sign us up.
Pick: Iowa +450. Low confidence.
SEC Tournament Champion
And here, we see the Duke/Michigan State effect manifesting with Kentucky…maybe. Either way, LSU’s continued relevance this year has flown under the radar as Tennessee’s tottered, Florida’s dealt with near-tragedy, Mizzou’s been on fraud watch (through no fault of their own), and Arkansas and Alabama have risen.
Will Wade’s still here.
Pick: LSU +700. Low confidence.
