Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,438 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 1.1% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We have a future today, and the odds for that come from Bovada due to the lack of a consistently current/accurate Vegas consensus. Before that, though:
San Diego @ Chicago (NL)
I’m guessing the market is assuming Fernando Tatís Jr. won’t play today, which I’m assuming as well. Even with that, though, the Padres have a fresh enough bullpen that even with Dinelson Lamet probably limited to four innings or so (the wind’s blowing in at Wrigley Field, and he seems to be allowed to work two times through the order now if the situation allows it, but he’s yet to record an out in a fourth inning this year), the Padres should be competitive in this one, and should arguably be favored. Adbert Alzolay’s been good for the Cubs, but he hasn’t been enough better than his projections to make a convincing case that it isn’t more than a small sample deviation.
Pick: San Diego to win +105. Low confidence.
Now, the future:
AL East
The Blue Jays might be sellers. They’re on the bubble for that designation, and I’m guessing that’s why they’re available at these odds, especially with the three teams above them all pretty locked in as buyers.
The Blue Jays might be buyers too, though. Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray are the only obvious trade chips, with the former potentially the best position player on the market and the latter a rotation-filling starter, but that also means they provide value to Toronto, which could appear even more valuable if George Springer comes back hitting the ball as hard as expected. After this upcoming tough stretch (after today the Jays play their next thirteen against the Astros, White Sox, Red Sox, and Yankees), the Blue Jays end June and open July with an easier course (twelve combined against the Orioles, Marlins, and Mariners). If they’re in the mix at the All-Star break, they’ve got the prospect depth to make a deal happen.
There’s a possibility that Canada’s coronavirus situation affects the Blue Jays. I doubt this would be an overwhelming factor, but if making the playoffs means playoff games in Buffalo rather than playoff games in Toronto, the Blue Jays might be less persuaded to go for it this year. Again, I’m guessing that won’t steer them too broadly, but it could factor in on the margin.
Overall, it’s good value, and it broadens our portfolio to a point where we’re potentially two bets away from cornering the market in the AL East if things break in our direction. We no longer profit within the division if the Yankees come out on top, but our World Series future on them gives enough value that it’ll make up for the half a unit we’d be losing in sum, and there’s a decent chance we get another shot at them, just as there’s a decent chance we get a shot at the Rays. So there’s an element here of covering our bases as well.
Pick: Toronto to win +675. Low confidence.
