Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,554 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines and futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 82–74 so far, down 6.71 units. It seems we did not, in fact, find something that worked. We keep trying, though. And we are up 1.75 units on the week so far.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Los Angeles @ Chicago (AL)
The primary concerns with the Dodgers here are 1) that they used a ton of bullpen to cover the final seven innings last night and 2) that Erick Fedde has been very good this year. Our angle here is slightly related to that first one, but it’s more about a third: There’s sometimes an expectation that a team will ease off the gas in the last game of a series they lead 2–0.
It’s not an unreasonable expectation. Resting players is common on the third day of a three-game set. But in this case, the Dodgers are in the midst of only three games in five days, having tomorrow off and having had Sunday off. This is an attainable sweep, and we think they’re going to go for it, especially with it easier to justify heavy bullpen usage than it would be if they hadn’t spent Sunday idle.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –175. Low confidence. (Stone and Fedde must start.)
ALCS
The Astros have won six in a row, closing to within three losses of both the division lead and the last AL Wild Card spot. They remain one of the best teams in the American League on paper. There’s value here, and we can stand to gain some value on these guys.
Pick: Houston to win +1200. Medium confidence.
AL Central
We’re also excited to see a positive eROI on these guys. Unless The AL Central is a big vulnerability in our portfolio. Thankfully, the Guardians’ winning is also outpacing the market’s reaction. We’ll take what little bits we can get.
Pick: Cleveland to win –310. Medium confidence.
