Editor’s Note: Joe would downplay how successful this is, but over a sample size of 296 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us via the contact information available on our About page.
Two picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
San Diego @ Baltimore
Fernando Tatís Jr.’s mad dash to score from third on an infield pop-up grabbed attention, but the rookie’s hitting’s been a bigger difference-maker than his baserunning so far for the Padres.
Though Tatís missed the entire month of May with a hamstring injury, he’s tied for third among MLB rookies in WAR, and he’s contributing more WAR per plate appearance than the best rookie to date, Pete Alonso.
His .427 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) isn’t going to hold up—no qualifying hitter’s sustained a .400+ BABIP in at least the last decade. Still, his XWOBA (expected weighted on base percentage, a prediction of how valuable a hitter should be given their walk rate, exit velocities, and launch angles) is right at the league median, which, combined with a 95th-percentile sprint speed, indicates Tatís is at the very least an above-average hitter. At the age of 20, that’s something special.
Pick: Over 10 -115. Low confidence.
Atlanta @ Chicago (NL)
Dallas Keuchel’s first start of the year wasn’t a roaring success. He allowed four runs (three earned) on eight hits and no walks, striking out three over five innings and taking the loss against a hot Nationals team.
Still, his velocities all looked in line with their historical averages, which is a good sign for the Braves going forward.
Tonight, he faces the Cubs with the wind forecast to be blowing lightly out to left. While a pitcher would always prefer the wind to be blowing in at Wrigley, Kris Bryant and Javy Báez’s terrifying splits against lefties (161 and 133 Career wRC+’s, respectively) make tonight especially daunting for Keuchel in particular. When Keuchel was his best, he was an extreme groundball pitcher, forcing the second-highest percentage of groundballs of any qualifying pitcher in 2015, the season he won the AL Cy Young. He’s always had trouble on fly balls, though, frequently finding himself among the league leaders at the wrong end of HR/FB ratio.
In other words, the Cubs should be expecting a lot of sinkers tonight.
Pick: Over 9.5 -100. Low confidence.
