Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,032 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Two markets today.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 48–34–1, we’re up 6.64 units, we’re up 8% (the average line on our winners has been –118). April was great, May was bad, June has been good so far.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units based on what we’ve bet so far is 124.91 units, or 12.0%.
Arizona @ Milwaukee
We aren’t buying the Julio Teheran renaissance, but we also don’t need to outright reject it to take this. Zac Gallen is one of the best pitchers in the game, if not *the* best pitcher in the game right now. The Diamondbacks are better than the Brewers, both on paper and on the field. It’s an early start, but it’s only noon Arizona time. We’ll ride with the snakes.
Pick: Arizona to win –141. Low confidence (Gallen and Teheran must start.)
ALCS
The Red Sox have heated up lately, winning six straight to pull within half a game of…fourth place in the AL East.
It’s a longshot, but there’s something here which is probably helping make Boston’s odds so out of whack: While the Red Sox are only barely one-in-four likely to make the playoff field, their odds of performing well *should they make it* are pretty good relative to teams outside the AL East. They probably won’t make it, but if they do? They’ll be competitive.
(Also, they’re only a game and a half outside a Wild Card spot right now.)
Pick: Boston to win +5500. Medium confidence.
World Series
Markets have finally recognized the Giants’ ability, as their nine-game win streak has propelled them past the Dodgers and within two and a half games of the Diamondbacks. Still, though, they’re behind. This is a good team, and when your biggest weakness is the back of your rotation, you’re well-built for October.
Pick: San Francisco to win +3300. Medium confidence.
