Editor’s Note: Joe would downplay how successful this is, but over a sample size of 282 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 2% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us via the contact information available on our About page.
Two picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Houston @ Cincinnati
The Reds are trying to sweep the Astros today, which is improbable, but not all that shocking. Starting the series with Luis Castillo on the hill, the Reds were favored to win the first game, and the overall series odds weren’t far from even.
So while a sweep would still be surprising, what’s more surprising is how the Reds are five games under .500 while outscoring their opponents by over half a run per game.
I’ve talked about the Reds before, but their situation deserves an update. According to Pythagorean Win-Loss—a predictive, yet simple calculation based on runs scored and runs allowed—the Reds have played well enough to be 14 games better than they are in the standings, and should be sitting a game and a half back in the NL Central while leading the race for the second wild card spot by half a game. According to BaseRuns—a more complex calculation based on a variety of simple statistics, which outpaces Pythagorean W-L in predictive accuracy—the Reds should be ten games better than they are in the standings, and should be only a game and a half out of the playoff picture.
In other words, the Reds, while not of the same caliber as the Astros, are in the better half of baseball when it comes to their performance. They’ve just performed at the wrong times.
Pick: Cincinnati +1.5 +105. Low confidence.
San Francisco @ Los Angeles
Rich Hill’s rebirth continues, as he’s having yet another good season after being left for dead long ago. He’s got a 2.60 ERA, which is boosted by an improbable LOB% but still backed by a more-than-adequate 4.21 FIP. He’s striking out over a batter an inning. He has yet to allow more than three earned runs in a start, and he’s pitched through the sixth or later in six of his nine outings.
It’s the same story we’ve been hearing since 2016, but that doesn’t make the story any less great.
Pick: Over 7.5 -110. Low confidence.
