Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,025 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We finished the NHL futures campaign having made 20.91 units off our 75-unit investment, good for a 28% return over roughly two months. Between that and the NBA profit, it was a great spring for our futures, and that’s without knowing how the MLB effort will turn out.
Two markets today.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 45–31, we’re up 7.77 units, we’re up 10% (the average line on our winners has been –116). April was great, May was bad, June has been good so far.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units based on what we’ve bet so far is 103.57 units, or 10.0%.
Washington @ Houston
The value here is suspect, but it’s probably mathematically there. It hinges on Jeremy Peña’s true value and how good Bryan Abreu is after throwing last night. What’s likely happening is that Josiah Gray’s ERA is getting too much credit given his xERA and FIP gaps, and that his recent performance isn’t scaring off as many bettors as it should.
There aren’t a lot of pitchers who are better than Framber Valdez.
Pick: Houston to win –240. Low confidence. (Gray and Valdez must start.)
AL Central
We’re anchoring again, and we’re leaving ourselves vulnerable to the Guardians ripping our head off in the regular season. That’s not the best way to anchor—the idea of anchoring is to protect ourselves against bad-case scenarios—but for right now, the biggest number we look at after maximizing value and maximizing breadth is what our return would be on the regular season were every division favorite to finish the job. To keep that number positive and not outright hedge in June (the Twins are still a positive-value play, per our inputs), we need to take this if we’re going to take the next one.
And we’re taking the next one.
Pick: Minnesota to win –170. Medium confidence.
NL West
This is ridiculous value, even with the Padres eight and a half games back of Arizona. For one thing, they’re only five and a half back of LA, but for another: Is Manny Machado dead? Is Juan Soto in a coma? Is Fernando Tatís Jr.’s return not going excellently?
The Padres might have issues. The Padres might be a lot worse than the numbers think. But that’s based on…what, exactly? Their 2021 collapse? The fact they didn’t get past the Dodgers in 2020? The fact they didn’t get past the Phillies last year? The narrative outruns the facts on these guys.
With this in the mix, we now net the following number of units on each possible NL West champion, as our portfolio stands:
| Champ | Return |
| Arizona | 68.00 |
| San Diego | 26.80 |
| San Francisco | 12.00 |
| Los Angeles | -7.24 |
The likeliest scenario is that we lose those 7.24 units and rely on Minnesota and Tampa Bay and Milwaukee and Atlanta to pick us up (though Milwaukee losing would also help us so long as it doesn’t come via the Reds winning, and swapping Tampa Bay for the Yankees would also be good). But the upside we’ve accumulated is massive, and it gets a lot bigger today.
Pick: San Diego to win +1500. Medium confidence.
