Editor’s Note: Joe would say this isn’t that great, but over a sample size of 268 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 1% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to at least not lose money.
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Four picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Oakland @ Tampa Bay
The Rays took the plunge last season, pioneering the use of the “opener,” a trend that has since swept over much of the rest of the MLB.
But between reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell, late-blooming Charlie Morton, and currently-injured Tyler Glasnow, the Rays are shaping up to have a playoff rotation that looks not only strong, but rather conventional.
Of course, October is a long way away, and the Rays aren’t quite a certain bet to make the field (and are only close to a coin flip to make the ALDS). The roster will probably change. Fortunes will change. Performance will change.
But bolstering the likelihood the Rays treat October in a more customary manner than even their peers is the emergence of a few more possibly reliable arms, beyond the top line. Today’s starter, Yonny Chirinos, has pitched his way to a 2.87 ERA over nearly 70 innings, and while his FIP is a more benign 4.09, there are a few contenders out there who’d like that number out of a third starter, let alone a fourth.
Pick: Oakland to win +143. Low confidence.
Seattle @ Minnesota
The Twins and Mariners are tied for the most home runs in baseball, which is especially impressive given that both their home stadiums are below the median when it comes to their home run park factor. Meaning, both stadiums suppress home runs.
As the weather warms, one would assume Target Field’s bleachers will also heat up, but even then, neither team plays in a bandbox. Which makes the power display all the more impressive.
Pick: Seattle +1.5 +100. Low confidence.
Milwaukee @ Houston
With Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Aledmys Diaz all injured, the Astros have had to turn elsewhere to staff their middle infield.
One of the replacements has been the diminutive Tony Kemp, who split time across the past three seasons between AAA and the MLB, but has been a full-time Astro in 2019.
Kemp doesn’t have the world’s best bat, but his .242 BABIP indicates his 93 wRC+ may regress in a positive direction, in which case he’d be a league-average hitter who plays roughly league-average defense. The Astros, to be sure, don’t want league-average from their starters, but from a backup keeping the ship afloat? League-average is much better than replacement-level.
Pick: Houston to win -130. Low confidence.
San Diego @ San Francisco
Though they aren’t far out of it, the Padres are one of a slew of teams in the NL sitting clearly on the wrong side of playoff contention. They’re so young, though, that even if they were to try to sell at the deadline, it would be unclear who should go.
One man who the Padres might be wise to deal is their most valuable player to date: closer Kirby Yates. While Yates has a year of arbitration eligibility left, it’s hard to imagine him ever holding higher value in a trade than he does right now, with his ERA under 1.00, his FIP even lower, and his strikeout rate a prodigious 1.71/inning.
At this time next year, when they’re aiming to challenge the Dodgers for a division title, would the Padres like someone to perform like Yates is performing right now? Yes. But Yates, while always at least adequate, and strong last year, is unlikely to bottle this lightning twice. And that remaining year of club control will only add to the bounty he can garner.
Pick: San Francisco to win +120. Low confidence.
