Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,465 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.7% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Cincinnati @ Kansas City
The Royals don’t have as much to play for as the Reds at the moment, but the difference isn’t huge, and we haven’t seen that come into play in a major fashion until around the trade deadline these last two years. With Brady Singer pitching well, albeit not going deep into games, there’s some value here.
Pick: Kansas City to win +115. Low confidence.
Game 1: Milwaukee @ New York (NL)
Corbin Burnes is outstanding, and Jacob deGrom is significantly better. Low value, but positive value, so low confidence (also, the Mets have a better second man in the stable than the Brewers do, if that comes into play).
Pick: New York (NL) to win -170. Low confidence.
Colorado @ Arizona
Humberto Castellanos has never started a major league game, but his track record out of the bullpen is fine, and he’s stretched out enough to go twice through the order. He gives the Diamondbacks a solid chance to win, and Antonio Senzatela’s pitched well, but not far off of expectations.
Pick: Arizona to win -110. Low confidence.
