Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,045 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Back to both markets today.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 54–41–2, we’re up 7.98 units, we’re up 8% (the average line on our winners has been –110). April was great, May was bad, June was good. We’re off to a good start in July.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units based on what we’ve bet so far is 109.79 units, or 10.6%.
Texas @ Boston
There was a lot of value on the Rangers early in the year, but some of that value came from overvaluations of the Mariners and Astros, and much of it has dried up. Jon Gray’s peripherals are underperforming his ERA, pointing towards regression, and Brayan Bello has been sensational for the Red Sox, entering today coming off five straight quality starts.
Pick: Boston to win +101. Low confidence. (Gray and Bello must start.)
AL East
There’s value on the Blue Jays today for the first time in the division market, and with the odds as long as they are, this is likely the only time we’ll have to take Toronto to keep them a profitable scenario. The Rays are still big favorites, and the Rays are still a profitable scenario for us as well, but this adds the Blue Jays to the Yankees and Red Sox as upside outs in our portfolio.
Pick: Toronto to win +2200. Medium confidence.
NLCS
Speaking of profitability, this flips the Phillies to a profitable scenario for us in the pennant market. Using FanGraphs probabilities, our bets placed so far in this market have a 78% chance of bringing something back and a 73% chance of turning into a profit.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +1400. Medium confidence.
