Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,562 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 91–79 so far, down 4.18 units. That’s not any better than flipping coins. For what it’s worth, we’re coming off a strong week. Some tough misses last night, but the wins were narrow too.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
San Diego @ Texas
Jon Gray is definitely volatile, but Adam Mazur is struggling right now, and even with Corey Seager still out of the lineup, the Rangers’ bats have been heating up.
Pick: Texas to win –139. Low confidence. (Mazur and Gray must start.)
Baltimore @ Seattle
Not heating up are the Mariners’ bats, but they’re used to that by now. Logan Gilbert should be up to the task of competing against this Orioles lineup, with Dean Kremer already deserving some skepticism even before the IL stint which ends tonight.
Pick: Seattle to win –134. Low confidence. (Kremer and Gilbert must start.)
ALCS
The Rays traded Aaron Civale today. We like Aaron Civale. The trade makes the Rays a little bit worse overall.
But!
Shane Baz is coming back up. And if you could choose one of Civale and Baz, you would choose Baz. It would be better to still have the depth, but today’s trade wasn’t the Rays going full sell. That still might happen, but today wasn’t it. This is a good price.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +6000. Medium confidence.
World Series
Also a good price is 22-to-1 on the Twins to win it all. They’re absolutely the underdog in the AL Central, as they should be, but they’re not out of that race, and they’re in really comfortable position to at least make the playoffs.
Pick: Minnesota to win +2200. Medium confidence.
