Editor’s Note: Joe would downplay how successful this is, but over a sample size of 318 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Three picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Chicago (NL) @ Pittsburgh
Cubs fans have been disappointed in Yu Darvish since his arrival in Chicago.
Maybe they can commiserate with Pirates fans, who’ve been subjected to a similar performance from Chris Archer since he arrived in Pittsburgh.
A very similar performance.
The stat lines, in their stints with their respective teams, are about as close to the exact same you can get:
Darvish: 130.1 IP, 4.97 ERA, 5.14 FIP, 27.0% K%, 12.3% BB%
Archer: 126.0 IP, 5.00 ERA, 5.06 FIP, 25.5% K%, 10.2% BB%
At least the Cubs didn’t give up prospects for Darvish.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-115). Low confidence.
Toronto @ Boston
Jacob Waguespack is making his first career start tonight, taking the mound for the Blue Jays against Boston. In one four-inning relief outing—his only MLB innings to date—he pitched well, striking out seven Rays while only walking one back at the end of May (he spent a few weeks on the IL afterwards, but recently completed a rehab assignment in Buffalo).
Waguespack is not, and has never been, a top prospect. A 37th-round draft pick out of high school, Waguespack opted to go to college, where he finished his career at Mississippi mainly a reliever. He was not drafted out of school but managed to get onto the Phillies’ Rookie League team, then posted solid numbers all through the minors (combined 4.04 ERA, 3.42 FIP) before being traded for Aaron Loup last year at the deadline.
The Phillies converted him into a starter in 2017, after which his ascent through the minors accelerated. Now, he’s making his first major league start. Not bad for a guy who went undrafted out of college.
Pick: Toronto +1.5 (+160). Low confidence.
Anaheim @ Texas
A lot of players have outperformed expectations this season for the Rangers. It’s a big reason why they’re half a game back in the wild card race. But Ariel Jurado has been one of the most pleasant surprises, going from a non-prospect called up last year to eat innings to a contributing member of one of the most puzzlingly effective rotations in baseball. Rangers starters have combined to post 7.7 fWAR, ninth-best in the MLB and within half a win of both the Red Sox and the Astros, rotations with much more pedigree than the Mike Minor/Lance Lynn-led bunch.
Jurado himself has a 4.63 ERA as a starter this year, which isn’t world-beating but is certainly serviceable. His overall FIP (combining starts and relief work) is 4.36. He doesn’t strike out many batters (16.5% of them, to be exact) but he only walks 6.0% of opponents, and he’s allowing only one home run or so every nine innings.
The clock might be approaching midnight for the Rangers and Jurado, but for now, the story continues.
Pick: Under 11 (+100). Low confidence.
