Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,627 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 109–93–3 so far, down 6.93 units. We’ve gotten within reach of profitability a few times this year, but we haven’t been able to sustain a surge.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Election futures: These have been our best market historically, with a 17% overall ROI and significant profits both times we’ve done them—in 2020 and 2022. We started this year with a 1,000-unit portfolio and a plan to bet it as a series of 20 mini-portfolios, each leveraged against itself. We’re still approaching it in that manner, with most mini-portfolios placed and published on Saturdays. This week’s mini-portfolio is later because we were waiting for Nate Silver’s model to update to account for the change in Democratic nominee. So far, we’re up 18.50 units. Those will go back into the bets.
Miami @ Tampa Bay
I don’t know what the Rays’ headspace is right now, but I do know they’ve won three in a row amidst the selloff, and I also know that Roddery Muñoz is having one of the worst seasons of any starting pitcher in the major leagues, going by xERA and FIP. Taj Bradley’s been solid. We’re going to try to make a layup.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win –255. Low confidence. (Muñoz and Bradley must start.)
Texas @ St. Louis
Maybe the Cardinals have something in Michael McGreevy, but he should be overmatched here. The Rangers kept their bullpen fresh last night. We like what Andrew Heaney’s been up to.
Pick: Texas to win –108. Low confidence. (Heaney and McGreevy must start.)
Los Angeles @ San Diego
The Dodgers as underdogs against a pitcher coming off a no-hitter is too much to pass up. The Dodger bullpen isn’t as spent as one would think after last night’s Padres comeback, either. Maybe Blake Treinen’s unavailable, but everyone else should be good to go in a game with plenty of potential to get crazy.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +121. Low confidence. (Kershaw and Cease must start.)
World Series
We’ve been betting on the Yankees the last few days to win the World Series. Yesterday, we said this about the Yankees at 7-to-1:
It seems to me the Yankees are signaling that they’re going to do what it takes to improve their rotation in a meaningful way, and while this is the kind of thing that usually doesn’t make a huge impact, it’s the kind of thing futures markets are prone to overvaluing.
What to make of that? One way to slice it would be to say that futures markets are overvaluing it already, and that they’re really undervaluing the Yankees. Another would be to say that futures markets are going to swing on these guys once they do land Jack Flaherty or someone similar, and that we should bet these odds while we can get them.
The Yankees didn’t upgrade their rotation, their odds still shortened to 6-to-1, and we’re…still betting them?
The value is not as good as it was yesterday. It is, though, still positive, and we could still use more upside on a team like the Yankees, so we’re taking it. What happened?
Some of the odds shortening might be a delayed reaction to the Jazz Chisholm trade. Some also might be a delayed reaction to the Yankees playing better lately. Often, futures markets are slow to react to individual wins. Those wins the last two nights in Philadelphia were significant.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +600. Medium confidence.
AL West
Similarly, the Mariners have retaken the lead in the AL West, and markets have been slow to react.
If this is a three-team race, we’re in a tough position, with the Rangers a slightly unprofitable scenario, the Astros a very slightly profitable scenario, and the Mariners profitable enough for us to place one bet on someone else but not two.
If it’s a two-team race, we’re in a great spot. We’ll profit either way as our current bets stand, and we have the leverage to bet the Astros again if the opportunity presents itself to get good value there.
Pick: Seattle to win +125. Medium confidence.
2024 U.S. Presidential Election
First: Thanks to our winnings from Biden dropping out, we can afford to bet more than 50 units per mini-portfolio going forward. Today’s will be 56 units large. We’re planning on making Saturday’s 54 units.
Second: While we do want to leverage each mini-portfolio against itself, we also would be dumb not to keep an eye on the big picture. There, our vulnerability remains what it’s been since our first bets: A medium or narrow victory by the Democratic candidate. If the Democratic candidate wins big, we’re in great shape. If the Republican candidate wins at all, we’re in great shape. Our risk is the Democratic candidate winning the Rust Belt swing states (WI, MI, and PA, sometimes called the “blue wall,” but called the RBSS for the remainder of this post) and/or Georgia.
Right now, Georgia is projecting to vote redder than the RBSS based on polling, previous elections, and other fundamentals. The RBSS are all between 50% and 60% likely to vote red in Silver’s model, while Georgia’s between 70% and 75% likely to vote red. While Georgia isn’t as correlated with the RBSS as the RBSS are with one another, there’s still a strong correlation there. So, when we see one of the books we reference offering an RBSS/Georgia parlay at 14-to-1 odds, our eyes light up. Even a mild correlation makes that bet a positive-value play. The correlation here is far from mild.
So, we’re putting six units on that parlay, while contrarily betting hard (38 units) on the GOP to hold Georgia. If the GOP holds Georgia and we lose the parlay, we net 14.54 units on this pair of bets. If Kamala Harris wins Georgia, she’ll probably have also won the RBSS, and we’ll net 46 units.
The obvious vulnerability here is if Georgia and the RBSS shift relative to one another in a way that makes it more possible for Harris to win Georgia and lose the RBSS. This seems to be something the market somewhat expects. Why? One theory is race. One third of Georgia’s population is Black, while the same is true of only one sixth of Michigan’s, one ninth of Pennsylvania’s, and one sixteenth of Wisconsin’s. Now that the Democratic Party is nominating a multiracial candidate, this theory would hold that Georgia will shift bluer in response, relative to the RBSS. I’m obviously skeptical of this theory, given I’m betting against it. Joe Biden received a lot of support from Black political leaders, and evidence suggests that persuading swing voters is more efficient in presidential elections than motivating a candidate’s “base.” Regardless, we have three whole months to monitor the situation, look for other opportunities like these, and ultimately hedge against our position if that looks necessary. The portfolio still has vulnerabilities, but we have a lot of time.
Elsewhere, we’ll put twelve more units on the Democratic candidate to win Virginia. That’s still flashing positive EV, and we’re in great shape if the Republicans do so well as to win Old Dominion. Virginia continues to serve as a reliable anchor on that side of our portfolio.
Pick: Republican Candidate to win Georgia –185. Medium confidence. x19
Pick: Democratic Candidate to win Virginia –240. Medium confidence. x6
Pick: Democratic Candidate to win all of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia +1400. Medium confidence. x3
