Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 391 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Four picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Toronto @ Kansas City
The Blue Jays promoted Bo Bichette the other day, the latest of their herd of future-of-the-game prospects to debut.
Bichette, a top-five prospect according to FanGraphs, is in the majors earlier than some expected, but at 21, signs indicate he could be able to handle it. He demolished single-A pitching in 2017 (201 wRC+ in A-ball over 317 PA’s, 145 wRC+ at high-A over 182 PA’s), was above-average at AA across 2018 (120 wRC+, 595 PA’s), and has been at least average at AAA in 2019 (101 wRC+, 244 PA’s). If he can even be an average bat at the MLB level, that’s above replacement-level for a shortstop, and that’s as a 21-year-old.
Defensively, Bichette has a reputation of, again, being at least average. He isn’t going to be Marcus Semien, but he doesn’t figure to be a liability out there.
There aren’t sure bets in baseball, and Bichette isn’t a particularly sure bet even as far as baseball players go, but he could very well turn into one of the best shortstops in baseball perennially. Which isn’t potential to take lightly.
Pick: Toronto to win (+125). Low confidence.
Detroit @ Anaheim
The first pitch in Anaheim today is scheduled for 1:07 PM Pacific Time, seven minutes after the trade deadline. Which means the Tigers could look significantly different than they do right now, with the deadline just a few hours away.
While a good number of their assets have been the subject of speculation, one of the more enduring names in the discussions has been that of Shane Greene.
Greene, who has one more year of arbitration, is having the best season of his career. His ERA’s a staunch 1.18, and he’s converted 22 of 25 save chances (sad anecdote: the Tigers have only 31 wins, meaning Greene’s saved over two-thirds of them, meaning over two-thirds of them have been fairly close). His FIP’s only 3.70—still solid, but not 1.18—and having never posted a FIP or ERA under three over a full season, it makes sense that the Tigers want to sell high. Reportedly, they’re asking for less than the Pirates, Reds, Mets, and Padres are asking for their prospective closers, and as an American League team, they’re theoretically in a better position to deal to an NL foe who needs relief help. Which brings up a rather peripheral anecdote: Of the seven primary National League contenders (Dodgers, Braves, Nationals, Cardinals, Cubs, Brewers, Phillies), only the Cardinals’ bullpen ranks in the top ten in the MLB in FIP. And four of those land in the poorer half, with all three NL East teams in the bottom ten.
Even with a lower asking price than comparable sellers, the Tigers might be getting a nice little haul today.
Pick: Detroit +1.5 (-115). Low confidence.
Tampa Bay @ Boston
Slumping, and with Blake Snell going down for at least the next month or so, the Rays are in some trouble. Thankfully for them, their pitching strength runs deep.
While Charlie Morton is now their only true starter who’s anything to write home about (Morton is tied for second in the AL in fWAR, with a better ERA than both Gerrit Cole, with whom he’s tied, and Lance Lynn, whom he trails), Brendan McKay remains a viable option to be called up from AAA, and the Tampa Bay bullpen remains very solid.
Between their openers, swingmen, bulk relievers, and conventional relief pitchers, the Rays have three healthy pitchers with FIP’s below 3.60 and two on the 10-day IL with FIP’s below 3.80. It’s not an arsenal like that of the Yankees or A’s, and because it’s so unconventional, it isn’t quite as noteworthy, but there’s a reason the Rays lead the MLB in combined pitcher fWAR, and it’s not just Blake Snell.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win (+133). Low confidence.
New York (NL) @ Chicago (AL)
Lucas Giolito has cooled of late, with a 5.24 FIP over his last eight starts. But while things haven’t been as rosy as they were through April, May, and the beginning of June, his 3.52 season-to-date FIP is very good. 19th-among-qualified-starters good.
Giolito will probably never be the ace many hoped he’d be when the White Sox acquired him in the Adam Eaton trade. But he sure looks better than the 5.56-FIP, replacement-level starter he was over 2018. Which figures well for the White Sox’ future ambitions.
Pick: Chicago (AL) +1.5 (+100). Low confidence.
