Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,385 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of both college basketball season and Election Day.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just MLB futures these days Monday through Friday. For context: We started the season with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them to hedge down the line.
World Series
Can the Padres pull this off? It’s a fair question, but it’s also a little wacky. Of course they can. Even without Fernando Tatís Jr., they’ve put together the seventh-best record in the majors. Should they get him back, they’ll be a better team, and even as things stand, there’s that seventh-best record thing again.
There isn’t as much a question about whether or not the Mets can do it. The question with them, at least at the moment, is more about exactly how aggressive they’ll be over these last six days of trading. They will get better. How much better is what we’ll wait to find out.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +800. Medium confidence.
Pick: San Diego to win +2800. Medium confidence.
