Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,063 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Both the moneyline and the futures today.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 63–47–4, we’re up 11.16 units, we’re up 10% (the average line on our winners has been –107). April was great, May was bad, June was good. July’s been great, but we need to finish it strong.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units based on what we’ve bet so far is 99.90 units, or 9.6%.
Baltimore @ Philadelphia
One of the advantages of coming back late to win, in addition to the whole part where you won a game, is that you probably did it against your opponent’s best relievers, and if you play that same opponent the next day, those relievers might not be available. Yennier Cano has now pitched on three of the last four days and five of the last seven. For the Phillies? Matt Strahm and Yunior Marte might not be options, but if the Phillies need them, we might be in some trouble anyway. Add in that Gunnar Henderson’s status is up in the air at shortstop for the O’s, and we like the Phillies to get another big win in the NL Wild Card chase.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –109. Low confidence. (Bradish and Suárez must start.)
NL West
We’re doubling up here, because there’s hardly ever futures value on the Dodgers and there’s futures value on the Dodgers today. They’re still an unprofitable scenario for us in the NL West portion of our portfolio, and we’re still in bad shape on the division portion more broadly if the Astros win the AL West, where they’re the renewed favorites, but this helps on all fronts, and it’s more than 80% likely to make us some money in two months’ time.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –425. Medium confidence.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –425. Medium confidence.
