Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,614 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 102–88–2 so far, down 6.09 units. We’ve gotten within reach of profitability a few times this year, but we haven’t been able to sustain a surge. This last one has plateaued.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Philadelphia @ Minnesota
Since the beginning of the 2017 season, who’s been the most productive pitcher in baseball by fWAR? The answer is Max Scherzer, but if context clues led you to Aaron Nola, you picked the runner up. Nola has rarely been dominant—his FIP’s only finished below 3.00 once—but he’s been consistently very good, always pitching like a front-end starter. This year? He’s been a top-30 guy so far. Behind him, the Phils have the upper hand today.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –146. Low confidence. (Nola and Okert must start.)
Anaheim @ Seattle
The Mariners are struggling, but even through the downturn, they’ve been able to avoid getting swept. We like them to keep that going today against Griffin Canning.
Pick: Seattle to win –175. Low confidence. (Canning and Castillo must start.)
AL West
All year, the defending champs have been overvalued in futures markets. We haven’t seen positive value available on them once. With their recent wins, though, and with the Astros opening this series badly against the A’s, the Rangers are back within three games in the division, and the market hasn’t caught up. The Astros should still be the favorites, but the Astros’ issues run deeper than a poor April. The Rangers are in the mix.
Pick: Texas to win +800. Medium confidence.
ALCS
The Rays got back to winning last night, pulling within a game of Seattle for eighth in the American League. They’re only four and a half games out of the playoffs now, and they’re still available at odds like this.
We’ve been betting a lot on the Rays lately, because the market seems to think they’re sellers and we don’t think that’s guaranteed. Whatever the case, this should be it for Rays bets in postseason markets. We have enough upside on them in our portfolio that adding to it would no longer do much for us.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +7000. Medium confidence.
