Editor’s Note: Over the last two years or so, Joe has published picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). That’s over 914 published picks, not including futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also used.
We’re back. After a weird ending to college basketball, we’re making bets again as the MLB season starts tomorrow night. We’ve got ten futures for you to consider, but first, let’s talk about how to approach futures in general.
I wrote about this yesterday (by the way, we’ll be referencing yesterday’s post again later, so there’s the link if you want it a second time), but with the uncertainty over whether the MLB season will finish, you need to be confident your book will push all unfinished bets. My assumption is all will, but you never know, and you’re not in a position of power. Even beyond that, though, it’s always tricky to know how to integrate your futures bankroll with your daily bankroll. Personally, I’ve entirely separated them for this MLB season and am trying to spread the futures bets out somewhat evenly across the regular season’s ten weeks, with the assumption then being I’ll get some payouts from division champion futures to carry me through October, provided this whole season happens (I’m going to stop writing that caveat now that we’ve established it, but it applies to everything below).
For this week’s futures, I’ve taken a rather objective approach. Rather than trying to think too much, I just drew up a formula and took the ten bets with the highest low-bound adjusted expected payouts. What does all that mean? We’ll get there.
I started with FanGraphs’ Playoff Odds. These aren’t perfect, but they’re the best projections I know of, and it helps that FanGraphs is a rather pleasant site to support. For each category, we took the FanGraphs probability of something happening (i.e., the Astros winning the World Series), subtracted two tenths of a percentage point to account for the possibility of small-sample size noise in their Monte Carlo simulations (this is where “low-bound” comes from), multiplied the resulting value by 0.992 to account for the possibility of a team being neutered by the coronavirus but other teams playing on at full-ish strength (this is where “adjusted” comes from), and calculated the expected payout from a one-unit bet.
This might not be the perfect approach, but this is only the first week, so for a baseline collection of picks, it’ll do. I used Bovada’s odds rather than attempting to find a Vegas Consensus for this, since in my experience MLB Futures odds are fairly variable across books, and Bovada at least consistently has action available in all these categories. I’ve organized the ten picks into five lines of thought.
The Astros Are Still Good
Yes, the Astros cheated. Yes, it probably helped them. No, they’re probably not still cheating.
But.
They weren’t the only ones cheating to any extent (though their method was perhaps the most egregious). A lot of their strength comes from their pitching (expect usage of pine tar and similar substances to remain similar across the MLB this year). And it’s hard to believe any reduction in their performance from not stealing signs will be significant enough to wipe out what came to a 101% low-bound adjusted expected return on investment (hereafter referred to as eROI in this post) in the World Series market and a 40% eROI in the ALCS market. Some of this is because the Yankees are likely overvalued (we’ll get to that), but a lot of it is that Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander should still be pretty darn good this year, and the Correa/Springer/Altuve/Bregman combination should still be potent, even if potentially hampered by rules.
Pick: Houston to win World Series +1200. Low confidence.
Pick: Houston to win ALCS +450. Low confidence.
The Yankees Aren’t an Overwhelming Favorite
The idea that the Yankees and Dodgers are on a crash course for the World Series is flawed, especially when considering the high degree of randomness a sixty-game season will bring relative to its 162-game counterpart. One would assume the Yankees won’t deal with the same quantity of injuries as last year, and they’ve got a fearsome roster, to be sure, but they aren’t going to get many games off. Yes, they might be the best team in the majors. Even if they are, though, that might not get them their division over sixty games.
The Rays’ pitching staff can rival that of their division-mates, and if you don’t think the front office in Tampa has figured out how to maximize value across a sixty-game stretch, you’re ignoring the obvious. Meanwhile, while the Red Sox have severe pitching concerns, their bullpen isn’t as bad as one might assume and their lineup has strong, young pieces in Devers, Bogaerts, Verdugo, and Benintendi. Sure, the Yankees deserve to be AL East favorites, but if things go poorly in Washington this weekend while the Red Sox and Rays jump on inferior opponents, Gerrit Cole might not be enough.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win AL East +280. Low confidence.
Pick: Boston to win AL East +1200. Low confidence.
The White Sox Probably Aren’t There Just Yet
Yasmani Grandal was an enormous offseason addition on the South Side, and the White Sox have some big bats elsewhere in the lineup. A lot of those bats are young ones, though, and pitching concerns are significant.
Minnesota appears to be fairly reasonably valued. They’re a strong, well-rounded team, not too far off the Yankees and Astros in the AL. They’re deservedly the favorite.
But with the White Sox sucking up air in the odds, and the Twins holding a reasonable place, the other three teams in the AL Central provide some good value, and the Tigers and Royals provide enormous upside in what could be a messy ten weeks. Even with the Royals dealing with the most coronavirus in the league (according to estimates), there’s the potential that could benefit them from giving opportunities to higher-upside, higher-risk arms. Long odds aren’t always a smart play (don’t bet on the Orioles to win the AL East), and taking those odds doesn’t equate with expressing enormous confidence in a team (I do not think the Royals or Tigers will win their division), but Cleveland’s still solid, and Kansas City and Detroit are being underestimated by the market.
Pick: Cleveland to win AL Central +300. Low confidence.
Pick: Kansas City to win AL Central +8000. Low confidence.
Pick: Detroit to win AL Central +12500. Low confidence.
The Dodgers Could Stumble
One of the downsides to the Dodgers’ depth-based approach could turn out to be a struggle to find the right combinations over just sixty games. They’ve dominated the NL West in recent years by resting pitchers, easing young guys into big situations, and getting contributions from unexpected journeymen. That recipe isn’t guaranteed to work over sixty games, even if the rest of the division isn’t great.
The biggest threat to LA’s supremacy comes from just south of them. San Diego’s got a few great young pieces, and the importance of their bullpen should be amplified by the more do-or-die setup. Colorado also looks undervalued, though not as severely. Just don’t forget about Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story, even if there isn’t much to see beyond that.
Pick: San Diego to win NL West +750. Low confidence.
Pick: Colorado to win NL West +3500. Low confidence.
The Nationals Are Still Here
They lost Anthony Rendon, but they might be able to afford that. The remaining lineup won’t blow anyone away on paper, but it’s competent, and the starting pitching is well-rested after last fall’s odyssey. If Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin stay healthy, Washington should be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the option to go all-in with aces. Couple this with the facts that the Mets are a perennial question mark, the Phillies are still lacking in a number of areas, and the Braves may have been getting away with some good luck in 2019 (only the Yankees more notably outperformed their BaseRuns-projected record), and there once again appears to be value down by the Navy Yard.
Pick: Washington to win NL East +250. Low Confidence.
