Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,381 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of both college basketball season and Election Day.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just MLB futures Monday through Friday these days. For context on these: We started the season with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them for hedging down the line.
ALCS
As we’ve been saying regarding the Blue Jays: The recent decline in odds doesn’t really track with what’s happening. They’ve got a great roster. They’re likely trade deadline buyers. They’re using an interim manager, but managers aren’t stupendously important, and given how much the talent’s been underperforming, it stands more to reason that the managerial change will benefit the results than hurt them. Right now, they’re the most valuable team in the markets. So, we’ll probably be putting a lot on them over these next couple weeks.
Pick: Toronto to win +1200. Medium confidence.
World Series
The Giants are on the playoff bubble, locked in a tight race for two playoff spots with the Padres, the Phillies, and whichever of the Brewers & Cardinals loses the NL Central. Their playoff probability, per FanGraphs, is right around 50%. But the team is not as good as last year’s, and questions are starting to arise about whether they might sell at the deadline, especially as they exit the All-Star Break behind every one of their competitors.
The thing with the Giants selling is that if they do it, they’re going to wait until the last minute to make that call. Between now and August 2nd, they play the Dodgers five times (four away this weekend, one at home on August first), the Diamondbacks three times (all away), and the Cubs four times (all home). The Phillies play the Cubs three times (all at home), Atlanta three times (all at home), and the Pirates four times (all on the road). The Cardinals play the Reds three times (all away), the Blue Jays twice (both away), and the Nationals three times (all away). What does that mean?
Oddly, it might be a good thing for the Giants. Those games are high-leverage, impactful as they’ll be on the buying/selling decision, but the expectation in things like the FanGraphs probabilities is that the Dodgers games will not go well, which creates some upside.
Overall, looking at the resources available to the Phillies, Cardinals, and Brewers, it’s hard to see any of the three being spectacular buyers themselves. Even if the Giants hold, or do a present value-for-future value flip, they should be a player in the race, and at these odds and with a couple World Series futures on them already in the portfolio, it’s the kind of play we can do once and never worry about again. We’ll take it, and with it take a lot of upside on them edging the Phillies and either the Cardinals or the Brewers.
Pick: San Francisco to win +5500. Medium confidence.
