Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,056 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Today’s futures, today’s moneyline.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 57–46–4, we’re up 5.57 units, we’re up 5% (the average line on our winners has been –111). April was great, May was bad, June was good. July’s been ok, but we could use another win today.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units based on what we’ve bet so far is 131.57 units, or 12.7%.
San Diego @ Toronto
We like the Blue Jays. More on them in a minute. We really like Yu Darvish, though. His xERA and FIP are each better than both his ERA and what FanGraphs uses as his projected FIP. We don’t love the Padres—we’re worried about something being a little broken there—but with the Marlins and Reds each riding a waterslide, we don’t really think we need to worry about San Diego quitting this early in the year. They’re on the edge of the mix, but they’re in it enough for us to take them in an individual game.
Pick: San Diego to win +107. Low confidence. (Darvish and Berríos must start.)
NL Central
This is a tough situation, because the Cardinals may sell and further tighten their odds, but the value is too good to pass up. Theirs is still the only respectable NL Central roster on paper, and having won these four games in a row—and three straight series—they’ve put themselves back in the periphery of the mix, sitting a full ten games back of Milwaukee but facing one of the easier schedules in the division the rest of the way.
We aren’t saying the Cardinals are going to win the division.
We’re saying 20–to–1 on them in this market is too good to pass up.
Pick: St. Louis to win +2000. Medium confidence.
ALCS
Beyond the Cards, the best value out there’s still on the Blue Jays in the pennant market. Even with last night’s loss, Toronto remains in a strong position. They’re just a good team slightly covered up by the juggernaut status of their division.
Pick: Toronto to win +950. Medium confidence.
