Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,583 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB futures. Moneylines will return on Friday. We might take tomorrow off. To be determined.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
AL Central
Last time. We promise.
If you haven’t been with us the last few days, the market’s a little slow to account for the Tigers’ slight surge before the All-Star Break. Nobody in the AL Central is so good as to be incapable of a downturn, either. So, we’ve been taking this, where the probability is very low and the value is very high. Ideally, the Tigers shock the world and we make lots of money. Ideally if that doesn’t happen, they get close enough that we can use this leverage for some nice hedges. This is our last time placing it because the upside has gotten to the point where our utility function starts leveling off. A 10% all-time profit for these bets isn’t much different from 12%, and we now want to prioritize breadth again.
In entirely related news, we like the value on the Twins. Having bet six units on the Tigers over the next few days, we need more Twins to preserve some upside there.
Pick: Detroit to win +25000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Minnesota to win +200. Medium confidence.
