Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 346 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us via the contact information available on our About page.
Five picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Atlanta @ Milwaukee
The bright spots within the Brewers’ lineup have been enviable: MVP candidate Christian Yelich (181 wRC+), top five offensive catcher Yasmani Grandal (125), breakout rookie Keston Hiura (148), rebounding Eric Thames (128), having-the-best-year-of-his-career Mike Moustakas (125). But the dark spots have been bleak: suddenly contact-less Lorenzo Cain (77), continuously soft-hitting Orlando Arcia (73), now-demoted Travis Shaw (49). As a whole, the offense measures out as merely average (99). Which isn’t dissimilar to last year (also 99) but could be so much better with even one more solid bat.
Entering the season, the narrative was that the Brewers’ starting pitching would be their downfall. And, to be fair, it’s been about average as well (16th in FIP). But with Brandon Woodruff on the fringes of legitimate Cy Young contention, the Brewers’ greater hurdle in a wild card game or division series might be getting enough runs across the plate.
Pick: Atlanta to win (+108). Low confidence.
Pick: Under 10 (-105). Low confidence.
Seattle @ Oakland
The prevalence of the opener in baseball this season has led to the emergence of another species of pitcher: the bulk reliever.
Tommy Milone frequently plays such a role for Seattle, with five relief outings of five or more innings since joining the big-league staff late in May. He’s done the job decently, with about a 4.50 FIP in those games. But overall, he’s been even better, with a 3.93 FIP over his total ten appearances (four of which were conventional starts and one of which was a shorter relief outing).
It’s too small a sample and too close of numbers to make any judgments about what role or roles suit Milone best. But as the opener persists as a concept, it’ll be interesting to see whether certain pitchers fare better in different roles—a “reliever” excelling as an opener, a “starter” excelling as a bulk reliever, or the respective alternatives.
Pick: Seattle +1.5 (-115). Low confidence.
San Diego @ Miami
Marlins 28-year-old Garrett Cooper played in short stints of 2017 and 2018 for the Yankees and his current employer. But in his official rookie year, Cooper’s excelled, with a 142 wRC+ through 226 PA’s.
Cooper’s been especially hot lately, slugging four home runs in his last five games. But even before those five, he was slashing .308/.377/.462. He came over in the same trade that brought Caleb Smith to Miami—a trade in which the Marlins only gave up Michael King (who FanGraphs now ranks the 35th-best prospect in the Yankees system) and international bonus money. Obviously, the bonus money isn’t meaningless, and the Yankees were probably trying to use their excess MLB-ready prospects at the time to develop the next wave. Still, it’s worked out well for Miami so far. And if Cooper and Smith are still a part of things when the Marlins finally contend again (neither will be a free agent for at least the next four offseasons), it might be looked back upon as quite the trade for South Florida.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-115). Low confidence.
Washington @ Baltimore
With Max Scherzer on the Injured List, the Nationals are calling up Erick Fedde to start tonight’s game in Baltimore. Fedde started six games for the big-league club in May and June, and while his ERA was pretty good (3.94), there were concerning numbers behind it.
Fedde struck out 15 hitters in just under 30 innings, a low number. He walked 15 hitters in the same number of innings, a high number. His FIP was 5.67, and all that’s without facing a single top ten offense (by wRC+). Thankfully for Fedde, the Orioles are worse than five of those offenses, but looking beyond tonight, as the Nationals try to build a cushion in the wild card race, Scherzer can’t come back soon enough.
Pick: Baltimore +1.5 (+120). Low confidence.
