Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,051 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just futures today, and tomorrow as well. Moneylines will return on Friday. We still don’t know when we’ll take the days off from futures we meant to take this week, but the short version is that we plan to take six more over the course of the regular season.
Context, bets:
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units based on what we’ve bet so far is 116.35 units, or 11.2%.
ALCS
These odds are still available. Today’s probably the last day solely betting them, because we do have a few other holes we want to cover before the weekend’s worth of games, but it’s been a great three days of building leverage. The Orioles were a significant liability for us 72 hours ago. They’re now one of our favorite teams. The portfolio can change fast.
Pick: Baltimore to win +3500. Medium confidence.
Pick: Baltimore to win +3500. Medium confidence.
