Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,577 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 96–83–1 so far, down 5.15 units. We’ve mostly been treading water lately, but we haven’t been able to sustain making up significant ground.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Oakland @ Boston
JP Sears isn’t bad, and the A’s aren’t as terrible as the preseason narrative wanted them to be. But the A’s are not a competitive team, the Red Sox are playing well right now, Nick Pivetta has been more reliable than it seems, and the Boston bullpen is fresh. Fenway should see a Red Sox win tonight.
Pick: Boston to win –182. Low confidence. (Sears and Pivetta must start.)
NLCS
There’s positive value available on the Braves today, and while it’s small (1% eROI), we’re going to take it.
The NLCS is a good market for us. Our mean scenario is happy: a 16% return. Our median scenario, though, is poor. Both the Phillies and Atlanta are negative outcomes for us, and we have nothing on the Dodgers. More likely than not, one of those three reaches the World Series, and while we have a lot of leverage thanks to getting the Brewers, Cardinals, Padres, and Mets early in the season at long odds, we’re still poised to be on the underdog side of a game of 3-on-3.
So, we’ll take these chances to build Atlanta back up. Adding them or Philadelphia to our side would flip our median scenario to profitability in this market. This gets Atlanta close.
Pick: Atlanta to win +475. Medium confidence. x2
