Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 786 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 10% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Maine @ New Hampshire
New Hampshire tries to stay undefeated at home tonight, a rather improbable statement for a team among college basketball’s worst 75. This is a byproduct of scheduling, of course—the Wildcats haven’t beaten anyone better than Bryant, and while they’ve struggled on the road it’s been either exclusively or nearly exclusively as underdogs. Still, they go for home victory number six tonight against a Maine team among college basketball’s worst ten. Shouldn’t be pretty, but New Hampshire should get the win and the cover.
Pick: New Hampshire -7.5 (-110). Low confidence.
St. Bonaventure @ George Mason
The question here seems to be how much to make of a mismatch. George Mason allows a lot of offensive rebounds. Its big men are foul-prone. St. Bonaventure’s most effective offensive players—Osun Osunniyi and Amadi Ikpeze—do their work down low.
Looking more closely, though, the Patriots are one of the better offensive rebounding teams themselves to date, albeit against a weak schedule. They block shots at a high rate. Yes, they’ll be in trouble if they have to go small due to fouls, but their guards have often been efficient enough defenders to pick up a lot of the slack this year. Don’t be surprised if that happens again tonight.
Pick: George Mason to win (-110). Low confidence.
UCF @ SMU
SMU has a very good offense, and not just by peripheral mid-major standards. The Mustangs are efficient scorers inside and grab a lot of offensive boards. They’ve also been playing well lately, topping eighty points in each of their last four games.
That number’s a bit misleading, though. Two of the games went to overtime. The third hit 80 possessions in regulation. In the fourth, SMU did put up 1.15 points per possession against a USF team that isn’t too dissimilar defensively from UCF, but it’s hard to believe they’ll again convert 77% of two-point attempts. They’ll score tonight, and probably win, but UCF should give them a struggle.
Pick: Under 137 (-110). Low confidence.
