Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,774 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: Just college basketball. No Super Bowl move(s) yet.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 62–55 and we’re down 7.91 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
George Mason @ Saint Joseph’s
Generally speaking, we like this Saint Joe’s team more than George Mason. Saint Joe’s has shown the higher ceiling. Also, we love picking moderate home moneyline favorites when they’re favored by slightly more than the kenpom line. We especially love them coming off of one loss. We especially love when their opponents are coming off a couple wins.
Pick: Saint Joseph’s to win –200. Low confidence.
Florida @ Kentucky
This isn’t a very different situation. Florida’s riding for a fall, and one thing about Todd Golden teams is that consistency has never really been their thing.
Pick: Kentucky to win –365. Low confidence.
Penn State @ Rutgers
Rutgers is having a bad year but consistently shows signs of life. Penn State is a more traditional bad power conference team, and that’s even looking past the fact that they’re Penn State.
Pick: Rutgers to win –305. Low confidence.
